CardRunners

Hi all,

I wouldn't describe myself as a particularly patient person, especially when nothing is going right, like things have been for me lately.

So after playing 120 games of single table for no gain whatsoever, I going back to my old favorite, the 45 man game.

So I dug out all of my old data from all the other stuff and took a more selective look at it. So out of 182 games played earlier my win ROI was 26%. With a win rate of 18.7%.

The badbeat thing is starting to wind down, but it's still doing lots of damage.

And does lightning strick twice, well in my case that's a YES.

Two days running I pick up JJ, and on the same hand get beat by a straightflush. That just about puts the badbeat icing on the cake in my book.

OK, lets dig up PT and look at some of the chaos that has been layed on my ass so far in 2009.

So last night, and I'm coming to the end of playing 13 games of 45 man. There's is one certain money potential and two other maybe's.

I lose focus and pull a ROYAL SNAFU

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3670143

It's the bubble of the final table, and I raise. Then it's on to the other 7 tables that need attention, when I get back I'm not focussed, and suprized to find the shove, so without thinking I call, where I would normally fold on the bubble. 

That really shook me up big time. I was playing the $6.5 tables and by accident had started two $12 equivalents, one of which eventually saved my bacon, as I WON it for $154. 

Here an all to often kind of hand where I keep missing the flop and everything.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3670204

But all considered it was bad play cause I could have just 3X it. 

Here one of the headsup battles, so many of which have seen the other guy hit, regardless of whom had the best hand.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3670234

And again the result is the same. A significant number of headsup have gone this way, either a miss or a sucko.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3670251

So the 1/45. 

Every big win has those moments when your luck has to defy gravity.

The first came early on with 100/200 blinds. 

Looking to pick up some cheap chips from the CO, my trash JT hand runs into a real one, AJ,  and sucks out on the turn.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3670301

So we reach the final table, blinds are 300/600 and I'm in LAST PLACE.

A9s v KK v AQ 

This was a miracle, as the flop is 4 clubs in a row, and NOBODY has one.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3670334

So I go from 9/9 to now 2nd out of 8.

So were down to 7 players, and SUCKO # THREE, against a bad call by the big stack with A5, trash.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3670361

In the next hand I get a legitimate win were my TT bested AK.

So its 5 players and I've got the chip lead. 

Now blinds 800/1600.

AK v A7 and I lose half of my stack, OUCH.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3670392, 

NEXT HAND I GET AA which gets entertained all the way to the river by JJ. And i've got all my chips back.

So finally we get to headsup and we trade hands, it lasts all of 5 hands for the most part, the rest was just taking out the trash.

So its 22 v Q9, and my ass is well covered.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3670413

So how does one win the big bucks in an event like this. 

Well you can have the SKILL, me I'll take all the LUCK I can get every time, cause most of this win was just that.

Tony


 

Hi all,

So last night I got in a 12 game session and had a $78 recovery, bringing my winning back up to $552, but still way down from its peak of $838., however it was not without some resistance from the "FIENDS" 

Chambers10 say

Umm, i may be missing something, but u are aware that the odds against him making a str8 flush are irrelevant to the hand, since he only needs a str8/flush card ftw

Of course he wins with any diamond and any J or 6, the point was the exception of him hitting a str8flush, and when one is at the tail end of a very long down phase, such events get really LOUD.

Ok well take a look at some of the resistance to the initial recovery.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?3663487

A7 v K7, we are in the money and down to the final 3, K7 shove allin, now calling is a matter of ICM here, the SnGwizard give an OK, with a calling range of 22+, A5+, A2s+, KJ+, KTs+.

Now what the Wizard does in such situations is allows one to change the stack sizes, and the relative blinds, so one can get a more general education regarding this phase of the game.

So here is the current situation. HOLD DOWN Crtl and "double click" the image and a new tab will appear on the browser with a larger view of the image.  





Now in order to play "correctly" one has to have a grounding in how stack size affects ones "calling range"

So lets change it to "Equal Stack" and see what the situation is.



In order to get a handle on these situation we need to start from "equal stacks" because this situation requires the tightest range.

So as you can see our calling range has changed quite a bit from equal stacks to the situation in the game.

And the trends is lower blinds tighter range, higher blinds looser range.

So what is a FOLD with equal stacks and blinds 300/600, becomes a CALL if the blinds are 600/1200



Anyway back to the hand

A7 v K7 and the flop 5 T K

The point being this is that he has 23.5% equity preflop, AND a lot of these type of hands have been hitting everytime and driving me CRAZY during the bad variance phase of recent games.

Its headsup  http://www.pokerhand.org/?3663524

A2(11417) v Q3(2083) and the flop 7 T Q (his equity was 42.7%) nevertheless this relentless hitting from the villains makes one scream on occasions.

And yet another headsup example http://www.pokerhand.org/?3663530

QQ v A7 flop J 4 A

And its been doing this like forever. I've got a dominant hand, villian has AX and 20%, and just keeps hitting relentlessly.

Ok so i'm keeping a tally on my place distribution, and after 87 games of single table here it is.



Now you can see where frustration set's in and my winning go down, namely the abnormal 1st/2nd place split of 7/14.

So hopefully I can get this recent VARIANCE phase behind me and get back to winning again.

Tony

Hi all,

So having taken a break, ate and slept, I finally got in the mood to harm my body. I've not been biking much of late and I needed to do something, so it was out to the treadmill in the garage for some 5% incline running.

I haven't run on my treadmill since the summer. Anyway I set my new fan blowing and set off at 12 minute mile pace on the flat. HR got up to around 130, then I started increasing the incline, and by the time it was at 5%, HR was in the 150's. So I carried on running and seeing how I felt. Actually okay. So since I hadn't run for ages I settled on just doing 2 miles. So after about 1 1/2 miles I increased the speed to get my HR up some. And settled at around 11 minute mile pace up my 5% incline. Heart rate was now 158-161 range. And still my respiration was similar to on the bike, basically very shallow. So that was good. Then I just shut it down and walk to cool down.

Fishmonk commented, "tony, as mentioned previously please provide hand histories. Were you all in pre-flop? If so, that sucks. if you checked to the river and called an all-in well that's a completely different story. There's a huge difference based on how the hands were played out."

So here it is, http://www.pokerhand.org/?3662353

I min raised from mid with my JJ, and got 3 callers, flop 7d 8d 2s, I bet 300 into the 425 pot,

so 15 cards out, 36 in deck, well give him max outs of 17, so he has adequate pot odds to call, the turn was 5 hearts, I shove the rest, and of course NO one will fold a hand like that, and he got lucky with his 29% equity in general, but in actuality there was only 2 CARDS to str8flush with so he hit like 17:1.

Tony

Hi all,

As you can tell, i'm having a rough time again. This is the still ongoing 4th mega badbeat fest. It has been coming in waves over the last like 350 games, so thats roughly around 15K of hands. I'd run  bad then recover, then run bad again, all the while still managing to increase my win max for the most part.

After the last mega downswing, I decide to look at the data, and found two loosing streaks of around 24 games in duration.

It was shortly after this that I decided to look over my whole data set an see how I would have faired had I just played single table SnG relative to MTT ones. It became clear from the results that the former were way ahead.

So based on that observation I've decided to play only single table SnG's. I've started a new database, but I'm not making much progress because of this relentless run of badbeat. It go so bad yesterday that I started screaming shit. fortunately it really doesn't tilt one particualrly since so much of the later stages of STT is just shoving appropriate hands. But it certainly gets under ones skin that's for sure.

The single table turbo SnG obviously get completed faster than the 45 man variety. I've adopted a style of playing 6 simultaneously and then replacing the lost games. I was able to get in a 20 games streak first thing this morning. But once things turn bad one has to shut it down, so following that I only managed 2 10 game sessions. Still that way more games in the same time period than playing the 45 man type.

Based on this approach I'll have no problem getting back to VIP Gold by the end of January. And if I can get out from under this bad run, and cash up a bit, i'll move up to the next level, namely the $27 turbo's.

So its been a grind so to speak of late. I sure hope this stuff goes away soon, as I'm getting pretty fed up with, all the bad every game.

In the last 3 days profits have dropped from a max of $836 to $496, so around a 40% drop in winnings.


Tony

Hi all,

Today I decided that I had to ride, so I took myself off downtown to join in with the "fast boys."

Well there was a real big group of 25-30 riders, and it didn't take them long to start gunning it. So earlier than in past expereinces they were doing 22-24 mph, and what made it worse was the fact the the speed would drop, then speed up, which isn't cool. So finally we get to the road that connects with where I live, and they lift the pace above 24 mph, and I said "the hell with this," actually my legs felt weak, due to lack of riding at this speed, so I dropped out and wandered on home. I'd got some HR (161) and pushed my legs a bit which was good enough.

So today I decided on going back to a mix of 90 man, 45 man and 18 man.

So I started off playing 9 90 man games on FTP, and ended up cashing in 2nd place again, my 3rd in 18 games. Hey I'll take it. So it pushed my FTP BR up to $184.

Then later on I played a session of 5 9 man and 5 45 man games. I got a 2nd and a 6th in the 45 man, and a 2nd in the 9 man games.

So things ran well today, pushing my winnings max from $766 to $837.

The stats data indicate that this winning streak should continue for a good while, as my "average results" continue to be below the average so to speak.

If you think about it winning $800 in $10 SnG's in 3 weeks, isn't something one would expect to do playing the $10 tables in a cash game now is it.

Happy New Years to everyone in advance.

Oh I almost forgot, here is a pic of me at Epcot a monthe or so ago, and one of my house and bike.








So looking at my Stats it's

Played:  488 games

ROI:     126%

Win rate:  17.8%

And in the 45 man events specifically, it's played 228, 46 cashes, with top 3 win% of 138 %, which includes 8 1st place win and 5 2nd place wins.     

Tony

Hi all,

Today I started playing on Full Tilt Poker.

I like the fact that they host 90 man SnG's, so I deposited $100 and set to to play a few. Their software is better in many ways than PokerStars. I like the fact that they list all the players, and all their current chip counts in position, which PS in its esteemed "elitist" wisdom, can not seem to do. However I do find the FTP playing tables somewhat disorienting, even with the avitars removed. I like that PS places card symbols on the table themselves, and also that there little info box below the table lets you find out ones current standing. This contrast with FTP, which has you open a separated window, on which stats are placed, ALL except your actual chip count which is annoying. Aslo PS gives one a bigger time bank than on FTP. The blind go up faster in PS turbos which start with 1500 chips, whereas in the 90 man turbos on FTP one get 3000 chips and the blind structure is a lot slower.

Wouldn't it be nice if one could get the best of all of these feature at both sites, yer right don't hold your breath.

So I've played in 9 events of the $3.3 KO turbo 90 man event. The KO is knockout bonus, and one get $0.5 extra for every player one knocks out. So far in the 9 games I've played I've picked up $6 in knockout bonuses.

Well the score is 2 cashed out of 9 played, and better still I got 2nd place TWICE !!!.

So with the bonuses, my little $100 BR has now grown to $164, which is a nice way to start out. BUT remember my stats, these results are not just luck, they are part of the anticipated recovery I've been talking about.

Ok on to the next part of the "STATS" for SnG's.

First lets look at the current "trend curve" 



Now this is where it gets a bit more difficult.

What you see and what "IS" is somewhat deceptive. The eye can only see contours, it can't measure the "area under the curve," and in order to define when a cycle in complete we need to literally add up all the data points associated with the trend curve.

So lets start at GAME 66, the point where we go plus above the average, which is of course the ZERO point.

Now the line goes up, comes back to zero, goes negative and come back to zero, well that's what we see.

In a perfect world all the data would now add up to zero, but our down swing doesn't quite go negative enough, in fact we need to keep adding the data points all the way down to game, 195 before we actually come back into "balance," and if we chart all those sumation points we ge the real picture.

So the "area under the curve" line versus game number look like this.




Isn't that amazing. It just goes to show what the eye can not see. So now going from game 66 to game 195, we have just completed ONE complete cycle.

And as you can see from the earlier "trend curve" we are in recovery, and since the data points are currently negative, we will have some idea of how far the "positive" upswing will need to go to bring about the completion of the next cycle.

Now it wasn't possible to forsee the big badbeat run I experienced from the initial data, but we will evantually get some idea of when the next down cycle is about to occur, and its magnitude, just by following the numbers, and that's where the data comes in useful, cause it gives one some idea of when its appropriate to "move down" and avoid excess loss on the corresponding downswing.

This kind of analysis take some getting used to, and you have to work with your own numbers and get a feel for what it does and doesn't tell you, but considering the raw data . . .





It's remarkable what a little spreadsheet data manipulation can tell you.

So you see poker isn't just about skill and luck, it's really more about NUMBERS.

And the final number for this blog has to be my new winnings high, which now stands at $766, all told todays RECOVERY bought in $405, which is all the more remarkable since the previous high was $583.

Tony

Hi all,

Today we see signs of "normality" returning to our results. So I get four cashes in 15 games, which is further highlighted by the fact that they included ONE 1st place, and TWO 2nd place results in my std $12 45 man SnG.

So winnnings has gone from being down -35% yesturday, to me posting a NEW winnings high, now at $602 today, relative to Dec-8 when I started playing SnG MTT events. So it's nice to see my stats performing up to expectation. And even though I've just posted a new high, my stats clearly indicate that I've a good ways to go before we really reach "total normalization" again.

These projections of course are related to deviation from the average I discussed in an earlier blog.

So here is the current raw "trends" profile.



And as you can see the "recovery" stalled around game 170 and went into the recent downward spiral. So you can see there has to me many "performance results" above the average in order for normalization to occur, and a good % of these results will be extra cashes.

I recieved the Jackal69, aka Phil Shaw's new book today, Secrets of Sit'n'gos, and will start reading it.

Currently i''ve watching his 10 part vid series connected to the book. And will watch many vids in thiis series multiple times, as there is a lot of information to digest.

i've also deposited $100 on FTP as I want to play in their 90 man SnG's, which STARS refuses to host. I'll only be able to play the $3.3 KO turbo event to start with, and hope to build up to being able to play the $11 90 man counterpart.

So things a slowly returning to normal or at least heading in that direction.

Tony

Hi all,

Well today started out good, I elected to join in a so called 20 mph spin ride north. Since a couple of elite riders were leading, a whole slew of there peers, joined in so we had a pretty big bunch of 20-30 riders. Everything went smooth apart from the wind which was every where. On the way back, in the last 5 miles or so of this 24 mile, ride the fasters guys elevated the pace into the 22-24 mph range, which suited me just fine. At one point as we neared home it topped out at 27 mph, and I hit a heart rate max of 173/bpm.

Then afterwards I went and hung out down town at the start with a few freinds for a while. I was a bit late getting motivated today, so I drove in to the ride. With the temperature now at 72-74F and no clouds in sight, its pretty nice for Dec-27th.

So todays blog is about winning, and in SnG's that means the first 3 places, in the 45 man events, which are my stable diet these days. Top 3 places pay out 68.9 % of all the $$$, so it's important to get your fair share. And break even of course is a loosing game.

I've segregated all of my games now and out of 167 events, break even for the top 3 is 11.2 places. My results recond getting 15 places in the top 3, so a 134% win rate. The breakdown is

1st   5
2nd  2
3rd  8

So it looks like I'm running pretty bad in the 3rd/2nd place category.

Winning also so means trying to avoid losing, and the only way to do that, is being able to move down to a lower table a times when a bad run is anticipated.

Now trying to do this in a cash game, is pretty meaning less, since there is more variance I beleive and more particularly there is no 'yard stick" by which to easily judge which way things are going.

With a given skill one is more able to determine an average performance in SnG MTT events moreso.

Now ones performance is obviously related to the place one gets in the event. So like 44th place woud be 44/45 or 97.8%, and 1st place would be 1/45 or 2.2 %. And of course over a large sample group one will tend to get a pretty consistant average performance. Mine is currently 39.2% out of 167 games. If we just look at this sample as raw data what we see in basically random noise.  





So how can we use this data to help us be more efficient, thereby winning more and losing less.

Well although the data appears randomish its not without it's trends. Since there is a average there must be phases when out performance is below average and phases when it's above average. And of course such transitions give rise to cycles. So the question is, how do we get to see such trends amongs all the noise. Well we can use our average performance # to differentiate those games which are better into "positive" data, and those which are worse into "negative" data. Once simply compiles a series of # when were take the average # and subtract the individual game result. So lets say our average result is 40%. Then every time we get a 1st place (2.2%) the subtraction will give us a new data point at 37.8%, and every time we get out in say 30th place (66.7%) we will get a new data point at (40%-66.7%) of -22.7%. Now if we add up all these new differentiated data points, we will get a continuous contour line which will cycle around the average, which is now of course zero, since we have split our data set equally into plus and negative series of numbers. So if we apply this operation to the above random noise and plot the new data we get. 


 



So instead of random noise we now see trends in our data, where performance tends to run bad, then tends to run good in cycles. It was using this data that at about 111th game I realized that a serious negative shift or run was about to take place. And so for around 25 games I dropped from playing my regular $12 game to the $3.25 tables,  where by I only cashed in 3 games (4th, 5th, and 6th place) out of 24, and thereby preserved my BR and saved a lot of $$, simply by applying a few statistical calculations to my results.

Looking at the end of the data, we can see that I am due to run "good for a while.

Since we differentiate the data relative to its average, the last new data point is always "zero". It is the trends which actually indicate the probability of our future performance.

Now that analysis was done using the whole data set.

But we can go a step further and abstract, just those data points for the events in which we CASH, and apply the same analysis. So looking at the raw data relative to the average we get. NOTE that the better the "performance" the "lower" is the number.





Now if we complete the analysis we can look closer at the trends.




And once again we see the up and down cycles in our performance, only with less data it is more revealing. AND once again NOTE the sharp drop after around the 110 th game.

So if you are a struggling cash game player, like I was, come over to playing SnG's and lets Jackal's VID series and his new book give you insights into becoming a winning player like me, and use techniques like I have outlined above to help keep more of those winning after you've gone on a wonderful RUSH.

Tony