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What's Your Edge
Taylor Caby: Poker Blog Things that sucked about this week:
-The flu aka the sweat.
-Lost my keys while digging out my car from under 8 inches of snow. Ironically, I only shoveled that day to test how I was doing after resting in bed for 3 days. I thought it was the "smart" thing to do so that my car didn't pile up too much snow, even though my car is dead and needs to be towed to the dealership.
-Computer broke. I ordered a new one that should be shipped to my parents house for christmas. merry christmas to me. i'm typing this on a keyboard that has no spacebar key, just the button that the real spacebar should mash down to type spaces. if that doesn't make sense, rip out your space bar and you'll know what i'm talking about.
-Fell behind on lots of work. I probably won't get to totally kick back and do nothing from tomorrow until NYE like I wanted to. Also, I'm going to have to miss the PCA to go to Europe for some CardRunners stuff. That's not really a good or bad thing, I was hoping to go to the PCA but Europe should be fun too. I'll be in London for sure so I'll probably try to arrange a CR gathering if possible!
-worst shape of my life. pretty self explainatory, but sitting on the couch for a week, no working out, and generally mediocre eating habits have put me north of 200 lbs for the first time ever. i will be back down at or below 190 by spring time. no doubt about that.
That's enough emo'ing. We had our Christmas party the other night. It was pretty awesome. I think everyone had a fun time. I'll save the details for a blog post and pictures from the party later.
What I did want to talk about are more: "signs the recession is upon us" stuff. I really enjoy taking seemingly everyday observations and trying to think a little bit more deeply about them. Take spam for example. We all get spam, in fact something like 99% of all email sent is spam (seriously, the Gmail Blog once had a post about this -- it was pretty fascinating to see how much spam goes through their system, and more importantly, how much of it google is able to block). Spam is annoying and useless, but then there is a different class of promotional emails that aren't completely unsolicited, but generally aren't all that desireable to open each morning.
For exmaple, you buy a rug at Pottery Barn and you have to give them your email address in order to schedule a delivery. Now for the rest of your life you hear about anything and everything that's going on at the Pottery Barn; not exactly my idea of a good time. The problem is that you've basically signed yourself up for this, and the other problem is that you never know when they might actually send you an email that you might be interested in.
These are the types of emails I'm getting more of these days. Nordstrom, Barney's, Tribeca Grand, anything/everything Vegas, lot's of mid to high end companies are absolutely spamming the hell out of me. WIth discounts, too. Hotel rooms that are 40% off, free shipping on just about anything online, even discounts on designer brands. It's just interesting for me to see these companies change they way they are doing business in these tough times.
Another interesting thing I've noticed is the excess availability of New Years Eve options. Last year it was insane, every place we tried going to was sold out at least a month in advance. My friends were paying $100-$150 a head just to go to a bar down the street that they could get $4 drafts from any other night. Now, I'm getting emails daily from bars and clubs, ten days before NYE, offering discounted packages for parties on NYE.
Vegas should probably be seperated into its own category. I would say I get an email from a Las Vegas hotel or casino at least 4 times per week. Usually it's just a low rate (100-150/night for a top tier hotel room), but lately its getting even better. I got a phone call a week ago offering me free air fare for 2, 3 nights of free hotel, and gambling money if I was willing to go to Tunica, Mississippi for 3 nights mid week. Out of principle I almost took it. Even the Wynn sent out an email last week offering 3 free nights at their hotel during some off peak times. I had some friends who got this email as well, and none of us could actually get the promotion to work, so maybe they were just testing to see if people were interested in it or something. Steve, if you're reading this, I'll gladly stay at your hotel for free, so hook a brother up and I'll come out to the Wynn whenever you want me.
To continue on the Vegas topic, I am going on record saying I think Las Vegas is going to look substantially different this time in 5 years. By different I mean there are going to be massive bankruptcies, failures, whatever you want to call it during this time span. The biggest problem I see is not that the town is overbuilt (which it is, very overbuilt), it's that they have overbuilt the Strip and closely surrounding areas with high-end stuff that so few can afford. As far as I can tell, the construction that remains in LV is mostly ultra-high end stuff, such as City Center and one other Condo building that I don't know the name of (it's the one that has some Vegas people up in arms because its going to block the Strip view of another pricey condo bulding out there, for those of you that know the area).
The hotels themselves have all classed up over the past few years. The Hard Rock is becoming a top tier destination. A lot of the dumpy places are now nice to very nice. The question I keep asking myself is: "who are all the people that can afford this stuff?" Another problem that is almost as big, that I don't think many of these developers bothered to consider, is that the global landscape for gambling is undergoing a massive change. First, Las Vegas isn't the only game in town anymore. There are riverboats all over the place now. Atlantic City now has at least one very nice property in the Borgata. Chicago now has the Horseshoe. Globally, Macau is becoming a gambling hotbed for the Asian gamblers. Finally, anyone not living in a facist country that also has an internet connection can gamble online. I suspect this will have a larger impact than most think on Vegas' revenues over the next year or so. Think about it, in tough economic times, the guy who likes to go to Vegas once a year to blow through a couple thousands bucks might instead decide to deposit $500 online. This way he can save himself the travel expense, and also can find limits as low as he wants to gamble. You can also make money last a lot longer online due to being able to get deposit bonuses, rakeback, and the ability to play for only a few minutes a day if you so desire.
All of these factors adds up to tough times for Las Vegas in the coming years. I don't know what is going to happen out there, but my money is on some large, fundamental changes in the landscape of the town or at least in the way they do business. I went out there a few months ago to look into buying a condo for our company and walked away thinking we are at least 6-12 months away from when I should even be thinking about that. I hope to find some opportunities to make money off of this thesis, but sadly, I have none at this point. If anyone has any of those, or thoughts on this subject in general, feel free to leave a comment or send me a message. Also, if you have any interesting observations about the current economic crisis, feel free to post them here!
Take it easy, go bears!
Dec 22, 08 12:28:08
Was just in Vegas this weekend and had the same convo with a cab driver. It's pretty sad to see. PH is building a high rise condo. Boyd Ent halted Eschelon. TI was sold. City Center is going to fail. The list goes on and on...
Dec 22, 08 14:38:00
Just got back from Vegas, it was kind of dead. I totally agree on holding off on the condos. I was sort of asking around while I was there, and I think you are dead on with your assessment that wait 6-12 months before even looking. I live in a very similar real estate market to Las Vegas (Sacramento, CA). We both reaped the huge benefits of the bubble and subsequently, both fell harder than almost any part of the nation. My gut tells me that we won't see 2003/2004 prices (real, adjusted for inflation) for a decade or more, and that any time between 1 to 5 years from now is going to be the ultimate time to buy property. Don't mistake that for the ultimate time to invest in property. People often ignore that real estate historically has stayed on par with CPI and has never really been a solid investment. Buy property because it has utility or it immediately produces income, don't buy at a loss speculating on the appreciation gains!
Dec 22, 08 15:33:31
im still wondering why someone in a non extradition country hasnt built a killer online casino
Dec 22, 08 16:30:18
LJJones, saying that Vegas is dead in December is like saying it's cold in Chicago in December. It's just the nature of the city, it's always slow there until after Xmas.
Most of the casinos are already near bankruptcy thanks to their terrible mismanage of their debts. (Leverage up because revenues never go down!)
Vegas will still pack it in week to week next year, you'll just see significantly cheaper room rates. There was an article this morning talking about how Wynn got swamped with room reservations right after they cut room rates by 30%.
Also remember with the Fed destroying our dollar, Vegas becomes cheaper and more affordable for Euros and Asians.
Dec 22, 08 16:31:42
Forgot my other comment. So you've seen a decrease in those NYE parties in Chicago? I've seen a ton of fliers for the bars and clubs and literally laughed at the dollar amounts they were asking for.
Dec 22, 08 17:41:43
Great points about the current Vegas trends. Its amazing that in the next few years, there are no hotels or casinos being built that target middle income players. Additionally, Vegas doesn't appear to be giving much back to the gamblers. Guys that play 25 or 50 bucks a hand of blackjack are lucky if they get a comped buffet.
Vegas is a town of cycles, and I predict in 5 years you will see many hotels that take the roll of Circus Circus in the 80s and 90s of providing cheap entertainment and rooms, as opposed to competing for the same customers as the Wynn, Venetian, and Bellagio.
Dec 22, 08 18:31:07
Legitimate marketing emails require an unsubscribe link in the email. The companies are required by law to remove your email from their database within 10 days. If they don't they can be held liable upwards of \$10k+ and subject to very strict monitoring for several years by the FTC. This is part of the CANSPAM act. If you don't want the emails look for the unsubscribe link. If they don't have an unsubscribe link report them to the FTC
Dec 22, 08 18:44:20
you guys are so bearish it's unreal. ben bernanke unleashed the printing presses last week, lowered rates to 4 1/2%. in my opinion you're behind the trend, and i think we've seen the bottom in the stock market, and will see the bottom in the housing market come this summer. i don't disagree with you about vegas though, which seems to be mostly what you were talking about. vegas probably is in trouble since a lot of the baby boomers lost a large percentage of their 401k money during the financial crisis. but geez, stop with the doom and gloom please.
Dec 22, 08 19:10:55
Excellent observations, I would love to talk econ with you some time. Even if Vegas see's multiple failures, they will adapt, moving to what the consumers demand. I'm thinking they got a bunch of info before the recession started, saying more middle americans will prefer higher end stuff. Now with changing times they are already pot committed in alot of ways and will have to find a way to adapt to the new needs while still not totally killing themselves with all the buried costs already accumulated.
Dec 22, 08 20:59:59
Everyone is so bearish with the dollar due to the new printing press we have established. Reality is that all our competitors will have to do what we have done, cutting rates, stimulous packages etc., We have simply acted first. I am not a greenback bull, but i'm not a bear either. According to Warren Buffet, an optimal play is to be greedy when others are scared and be scared when others are greedy. I am really bullish with Steve Wynn's companies(WYNN). Not only will he survive this downturn, he will thrive as worldwide growth regains its strength in the upcoming years.
Dec 22, 08 23:12:05
i think a lot of people are confusing the ticks and symbols for the actual real life economy DESPITE the current recession (yeah i said it; recession) and it's previous inevitability.
Interesting movies to check out would be "life + debt" and "confessions of an economic hitman" In reverse order (also both instant on netflix).
Ultimately I feel Vegas will have to slow it's growth but I don't sense collapse; as SixPeppers pointed out their industry's versatile and don't forget their demographic/market is global.
Dec 23, 08 00:46:59
Its 1:44 am here..at 2:05 im expecting to see u and the boyzzzzz on PAD...
in case ur not on in a few minutes...when is your show goin to air?
Thanks
Peace
Dec 23, 08 07:49:43
This is going to take a while to absorb. I'm going to go make some coffee...
percolating is such a pleasant process, when I can find the time to enjoy it
Dec 24, 08 02:54:34
Remember that your humility is what keeps you interesting. Don't try to market your realizations, unless you have studied the realms you are discussing to the umpteenth degree. Seriously.
Do your research. If you still feel the same way about yourself as you seem to in this post... do more research.
This is my firm belief from studying economics to exhaustion... bullshit exhausts me, and so do over-simplified models. Still, they serve a purpose.
EDIT: Compare bullshit to bearshit... when thinking about the stock market and how you are trying to exploit a natural cycle within any system that is strong enough to endeavor for balance. Adapt or perish.
Ever heard of the 90/10 rule? Shut up for about 8 hrs (downtime), and read something that you find insightful. Or listen to music. This is coming from my heart man... I'm trying to help you understand how your ideas don't filter through simple minds easily... and how simple will destroy complicated, over time.
To copy an Asian man that says it better than I will ever be able to (in my own words):
Remember the basics - aim for humility. Everything else is just your own fucked up understanding of the world.
Just one more thing: true humility creates humour, not hubris.
Jan 12, 09 16:55:24
i think i have an idea of how to profit. email me if youre interested in hearing more.
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Taylor Caby: Poker Blog
Taylor
chicago, il
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