CARDRUNNERS
What's Your Edge
Andrew
let's talk good things first.
I've been very busy. The tail end of last week we had Lee and Townsend in town to have some meetings. Obviously, CR has taken some shit lately and we don't like that. We've been working on a lot of stuff over the last month or two. These meetings were good because we were able to see how it is all coming together. We've got some big changes coming soon and I'm really excited about them. These changes will directly influence the type and quality of content you will be getting, so don't feel like we're building up nothing.
I saw Radiohead at Lollapalooza on Friday. They are one of my favorite bands in general and def one of my favorites to see live. They didn't dissapoint. IMO, they are one of the few must see bands out there.
I saw Barcelona play one of the Mexican Chivas teams at Soldier Field on Sunday. I'm not a huge soccer fan, but I do really enjoy seeing them in person. Soccer fans get so into the game, you can't help but have a good time. You also get to see some sick goals. I think the final score was 5-2 so there was no lack of action. Barcelona won.
Poker has been absolutely miserable. I felt so good early last week. I was almost back in the positive. Things just went to aboslute shit after that. I don't think I've had one winning session since then and my best session is probably the one I put in today at -1k. Sweet. I downloaded pokerev to see how much of it was truly running bad and how much was feeling bad for myself. I'm not really sure how this works, so any help analysing my graph would be great.
Hands: 20,298
Profit: -11,677.60
Days remaining: 39
I think I'm running about 4-5k under expectation. I'm not sure what the whole skalansky chart means (total winnigs vs skalansky and expected). I'm told it has something to do with the amoutn I win at showdown. Do I just suck in the small pots?
I'm going to my cabin in Michigan this weekend. I think I'm going to unplug for a few days. In other words, stay offline, don't use my cell phone, etc. I could use sometime in the woods away from the cyber world. I think it can only be good. I plan on golfing, fishing and just spending time with my family. I'll also try to get some reading in. I couldn't think of a better place to go to let out all of this frustration I've been having.
Aug 5, 08 14:15:19
i generally click on the "statistics" tab in pokerEV and check the "net run (all-ins)" column to see how far above/below expectation i'm running. but yikes, that first graph is sick...
Aug 5, 08 16:13:59
I *think* that first graph has something to do with non showdown pots. The green line is your earnings for the year (-\$11k) and the blue line is shodown winnings (how much you've won at showdown obv). The redline is your sklansky bucks and is how much you should of expected to win at shodown ( I think). So your about -\$3k under expectation on your showdown hands. Every PLO player loses money in non showdown pots over large enough samples. You obviously are losing to much.
*I'm no expert at reading graphs so if this is off a little then I wouldn't be completely surprised.
Also, wheres your cabin at. I'm in SW Michigan.
Aug 6, 08 01:09:48
Andrew,
After watching the latest Brystmar video I greedily decided what you need for your 6 max game is a leak finder series where lefty (can't remember the last numbers in his screenname, but the latest plo guest pro) breaks down your style with some sound tag advice. I am not a graph expert, but it looks like you are getting murdered in non-showdown hands, that your all ins are generally profitable, and that with what we are given it's almost impossible to see how you are truly running. Good luck.
P.S. Please tell us if you do decide to do some sort of a leak finder series.
Aug 6, 08 11:36:36
i think the non-showdown pots you're losing are sometimes from not being able to take advantage of marginal spots. i think it's very important to be aggressive on blank turn/rivers to force players out of these marginal pots...this should add to your win w/o showdown rate a ton. i played a few hands on your plo400 tbls and also saw a couple of hands that you're pushing your premium starting hands too hard sometimes post flop? the only hands that are going to call you there are going to be hands that beat you equity-wise. well those were only a few hands so i'm not sure how your overall style is.
Aug 6, 08 11:38:41
also i think what the 2nd graph is saying that you're getting it in too light for all in pots, as your skalansky bucks (red line) is running below equity on the all in pots. again this has something to do with what i was talking about pushing your premium starting hands too hard post flop.
Aug 7, 08 12:07:26
its entirely possible that you run bad , that you have to bet fold lots, and your bluffs are getting raised a ton. i generally win alot in non showdown pots, and also had periods like this. its also possible that your not good in non showdown pots.
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Hands: 15,625
Profit: -3,518.25
Days remaining: 46
Ok, now I'm finally starting to get on a nice roll. I played a really short session today and picked up 5 buyins. Last night I played for another short session and won around 1k. Things are looking up. Both of these sessions were HU. I think my HU game is really coming along (although, my hu game was always better than my 6max). The main thing I needed to work on with my HU game was control. When I say control, I mean both control of myself and of the match. In the past I would play so aggressive that I would sometimes tilt myself. It sounds crazy, but it's true. I would convince myself to make calls I shouldn't with the thought process of "i'm playing so loose, he should be tilted, he's probably bluffing." That's not good when you're playing vs a good player. I always struggled against better players. I feel like I'm playing much better vs them lately. I'm controling my game much better and picking my spots much better.
Cooler. I like the way he played the hand with the check though. I feel like I'm just betting and then pushing to a raise most of the time. This is a good reminder that you gotta mix it up some.
I played against a guy who ran $100 up to $900 by winning hands like this.
It all came crashing down for him with these two hands that occured within 3 hands of each other. Hand 1. Hand 2. yikes.
Is this a spot where I should typically be stacking in a 3 bet pot? There is a made straight on the board already and I have a pair in my hand. I'd feel a lot better if I had a random 4th card instead of the pair of 5s.
In my database, I'm down a ton with two pair. I don't think I should be stacking in spots like this. I do have the gutter, which helps things, but there is the flush draw out there. I feel like this is a best case scenario and we're tied.
Jul 29, 08 18:40:36
please go back to the page you titled 'new challenge'.... that is were i posted a comment ..... gl and ty for the EXCELLENT VIDEOS!!!
Jul 29, 08 18:52:45
[QUOTE] Is this a spot where I should typically be stacking in a 3 bet pot? There is a made straight on the board already and I have a pair in my hand. I'd feel a lot better if I had a random 4th card instead of the pair of 5s. [/QUOTE]
When he CBets such a dangerous flop, it should tell you that you don't have ANY fold equity with a shove. Call and hope to hit something on the turn.
Jul 30, 08 00:34:53
'In the past I would play so aggressive that I would sometimes tilt myself.'
I laughed for about 5 mins after seeing this.
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I seem to be finding a rhythm with HU play, but the 6max play just isn't there yet. I've been grinding out some solid money HU only to give it back when I jump into the 6max games. Even still, I've made a little progress and I'm not stuck as much as I once was.
Hands: 14,533
Profit: -6,309.80
Days remaining: 47
And I wonder why I'm losing at 6max.
I was pretty lost here. I think betting here is bad. I think I should probably check call. Once I bet and small stack shoves, I don't know if I should call or not, but once I call that, I think I have to call the other shove. Any help here is appreciated. At least I got lucky.
I def butchered this one.
Should I just be folding the flop here? I had the guy pegged as a weak player so I thought two pair, lower set were in his range. I figured he made a smaller boat on the river when he bet out. Does anyone not raise there? Pretty sick hand in the end. Def hurt my momentum today.
I immediately regreted raising the flop here. I'd much rather seen a turn for cheap and make sure it comes down ok. It just seems like a bad board to stack on the flop with when I didn't have any redraws. I was right. I was well behind with the nuts.
I'm ahead of my pace on hands played. That's important though because I have a busy few weeks coming up where I won't be able to play as much.
The important thing is that I am making progress. Props to Stinger for his really solid 3 part PLO series. I just got done watching that.
Jul 28, 08 15:39:19
You probably should tone down the aggression at your 6max games. At that level, you don't need to be so aggressive to turn a decent profit. Still, hand 1 as played is just a cooler once you hit that flop.
The second hand reminds me of the hand I posted on CR forums a few days back:
[URL=null] http://www.cardrunners.com/members/forum/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=365360&page=2#Post365360 [/URL]
Its a little different but def has similiar concepts. With the naked bad wrap I can see checking and evaluating the action. Once you bet and get cold called twice, and raised, you can assume your outs are blocked up and the J might be dead.
For the third hand, your flop lead turns your hand into a cbet thats a bluff more than anything. Once he raises, you don't have odds to try to fill up which is almost certainly what you'll need to do (the J blocker doesnt help).
Being so deep, the flop call is fine since you should be able to extract when you fill up with those stack sizes and position. His river bet should strike you as odd. It really does look like he has quads or a smaller boat and I'd usually raise this without much thought. Looking at the HH with some time though, and seeing your read as a weak player, he probably doesn't take this line a ton with 99xx or 89xx and TT/Q8 are rare and again, probably doesn't c/r unless he has the As with one of those.
I like the flop raise in the last hand. There is a few draws he could have and a few draws he could put you on. Calling and allowing unsafe turn cards will kill the action you probably want and invite the action you don't want, but allowed a cheap turn. I think a small raise uner pot is a perfect raise size to set up getting a good portion of the stacks in on those safe turn cards and imo is def the right line.
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I won 10 buyins after dinner last night. Today I dropped 5. I just need to come to grips with the swings. More updates to come.
In the meantime, check out this song. It's badass.
Jul 27, 08 02:03:17
SEND ME \$400 DOLLARS.... YOU OWE ME \$400 DOLLARS. OUR BET WAS \$750....... I SPENT \$1300!!!!!!!!!!!! QUIT TRYING TO SCAM ME!
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I just finished watching today's video by Rollover. It's a solid video. I suggest you check it out if you're a PLO player. I'm looking forward to part 2. One hand I found interesting was his discussion of AKsJ10 and how poorly it plays against a typical 3 bet range. It makes sense if you think about it, but I would always play that hand pretty strongly. I'm going to reconsider that. I also think I'm going to adjust my PAHud to include his bottom line of stats (they have to do with c-bets).
I'm feeling better. Earlier I was pretty pissed off. I just need to work through these leaks. PLO is a swingy game and while 20 buyins seems pretty bad, it's not that terrible in the scheme of things. Some of it is due to bad play and some is due to running poorly. What's important is that I do what is necessary to improve my game and play through it.
Part of this challege was to adhere to bankroll standards. I started the month with a 20k bankroll. I think thats a bit on the small side for 2/4, but I didn't expect to hit such a big downer at the start. I think I will consider moving down to 1/2 if I have another bad session or two. Thoughts on bankroll for PLO?
I'm writing this on the bus on my ride home. I just got to my stop. Going go hit the gym up and take out some of my PLO frustrations.
Jul 24, 08 16:49:15
Hey Andrew,
As noobish as it sounds, would enjoy if you took a look at my blog and commented on some of the 2/4 HU PLO hands I posted.
Rollover2k is a good guy, definitely check out his blogspot if you haven't before - http://4cardpoker.blogspot.com/
- Burda
Jul 25, 08 03:57:26
hi andrew,
im no expert on PLO or anything but im a slight winner at 1/2 over a substantial number of hands so heres my 10cents worth.
the trick to PLO is to be really really strict with a stop loss.
this is much easier said than done and at the start (and sometimes even now) id tilt crazily and drop 15BI easy playing like a monkey.
set yourself a 5-6BI stop loss, either through running bad or playing bad, it limits the amount u drop, there will always be other tables running another day.
have you considered shortstacking? ive seen a few players who do it quite profitably at 1/2 and 2/4
just a thought
good luck at the tables
Jul 25, 08 09:50:28
Go back to NL!!! Why try to constantly work on a game that isn't suiting you? Come back to the bread and butter. Just don't 16 table 2/4 so that I don't have to see all that red when I load up my tables.
Jul 25, 08 15:03:00
I wouldn't want anything less than a 100BI BR for PLO. It would definitely be my minimum to play optimally.
Jul 28, 08 10:58:51
I just moved down from 2-4, due to cashing out 1/3 of my roll... we dont need anyone like you moving down to 1-2, it would be bad for my winrate :)... anyways gl
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I've dropped about 16 buyins in the last two days playing hu. brutal.
Hands: 7,465
Profit: -8,396.40
Days remaining: 51
this is not what i expected. if i keep losing at this rate, i'll be completely broke in about 2 weeks.
Jul 24, 08 13:00:44
move up to where they respect your raises....... see empiremaker's latest blog post. it works!
Jul 24, 08 13:04:13
Andrew,
I've had a bunch of sessions with you in the past....PLO is very swingy as you know. Your style leads to even a more swingier result. Sometimes in PLO nothing will go right.....other times everything hits and holds. I really don't think anyone has a HUGE edge in PLO and you can lose lots of cash if your not careful. As i've done to you a few times. It can turn around bud but it also could break your roll. Not much else to say about it!!!
Jul 24, 08 16:48:50
Andrew, you obviously know what you are doing, but you need to adjust your game towards certain players, especially the regs. It's very easy for me and probably other players to play vs your style of play, and maybe its time you changed it a bit and maybe tightened up. Just my opinion from playing vs you and it will def. reduce your variance.
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Hands: 5,890
Profit: -1,861
Days remaining: 53
So that's where I stand right now. I was stuck as much as $6k at my low, so I'm not going to complain too much. I'm not a great 6 max player. My PLO strength has always come playing HU and even there my style didn't work much above 2/4. One of the things that stands out to me about my numbers is my very high flop AF. I don't know if that's bad or not. I also feel like I'm playing too tight. My last few sessions, I've played at like 20/16. That seems way too nitty for my liking. I figure it's not terrible though since I'm working through leaks. It's better to err on the side of being too tight.
At first I thought my opponent played this hand terribly. Looking back on the HH, it's not too bad. He had a decent hand to call with preflop considering we were both deep. That's a flop that's worth going with. Although, he's lucky I didn't have his flush draw covered. I think you need to be very careful in spots like that because you can be in ok shape like he is or you could be crushed.
This hand is fairly straight forward, but I wasn't really too sure of what to do on the flop. After reviewing it, I'm convinced it's a fold. It's a pretty standard call preflop, but you gotta give it up on that flop. oops.
I think this was dumb luck in a way. I wanted to throw up when he shoved the river. The guy was a crazy player and I knew he was capable of bluffing or showing something like top two. I basically just crossed my fingers and hoped that was what he was doing. I guess I'm not sure what's standard there. I think I have to bet the river. Shoud I typically fold when he pushes?
I really feel like I'm gonna push through soon and start posting big wins. Let's hope that's true.
Jul 22, 08 18:47:51
I fold flop hand 2 and river decision hand 3 is very player dependant but 85 is pretty unlikely after flop so call can't be too bad. GL wigman
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I don't have time to write up a big entry, but I figured I'd give you a quick update. Also, I want to thank everyone that took the time to post their thoughts on hands in the last entry. I really appreciate it. There was some good advice there.
Hands: 1,509
Profit: -3795.25
Days remaining: 58
oops. I'm not running well. I also misplayed a few hands. I'll make a bigger post tomorrow. I also expect to get in a good amount of hands tomorrow and over the weekend.
Jul 17, 08 19:59:18
You will turn it around Andrew. Although, you blogging about being down is great fuel to those busto rumors! 2p2, you listening?
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Something that I've always struggled with that is even more important with PLO than NLHE is playing your A game at all times. You can leak a lot of money in PLO when you are playing your B or C game. You can always convince yourself to make a play or go with a draw when you shouldn't be. It's not good. I often dig big holes when things aren't going right. I often will drop 10+ buyins in a session of PLO. Now with PLO, that isn't unheard of. The thing is that I can probably easily avoid dropping at least a few of those buyins. I get tilty and just start playing my B or C game.
Last night was one of those nights where things just weren't going right. I don't think I was every playing that well throughout the session. I made a few mistakes and my table image wasn't good. PLO relies a lot on having fold equity when you push draws. If you have that tilty image, you basically have to around and wait for the nuts because you aren't going to have much fold equity when you push those draws. I was happy with myself that I called it quits only down 2.5 buyins.
One thing I really need to work on is being less spewy in 4 bet pots. I don't really ever fold to 4 bets when I have position. When I have hands that are somewhat dominated by AAxx, I need to be folding. Here is an example of a hand I played really poorly and got it in very bad with. Gotta fold that preflop.
I was pretty sure that this was a push due to the fold equity. I was a bit surprised to learn I was a favorite over his hand. I thought the fact that I had a pair in my hand and 3 of my suit for the flush draw would make me a dog. Although, if I was vs. AA, I would have been a dog I think. Something I need to work on is giving less value to hands with pairs in them, because it really hurts your equity when you are trying to jam in a spot like this and don't have the set.
I think I played this hand standard. I need to talk to stinger or someone about spots like this. My hand seems too strong to fold and pushing is no good because I'm 35% vs AAxx. Nice flop.
I'd appreciate any input you guys have on hands I play. Please don't come on here and bash my play. I'd appreciate constructive comments. I'm admitting now that I have a lot of leaks and I need to iron them out. I'll probably often post hands that I felt I misplayed.
Hands: 473
Profit: -1090
Days remaining: 59
I'm going to play some golf with my dad in a few minutes. I haven't played one round this entire summer, which is depressing. I used to play so much golf. I'm going to try to get a session in later tonight, but I'm not sure how much time I'll have. My plan is to try to get in small sessions here and there and then at least once a week just pound out a huge session of 3-5k hands, especially if I'm putting a good session together.
Jul 16, 08 19:12:43
Andrew,
Think this is def. a standard call. If you look at it from a math perspective, you are going to call 132 to win an implied odds pot of \$828.00. In this case you need 15% equity. Given that villain is just about always going to stack off here everytime, and you will hit your set roughly 25% of the time, this makes it +EV. Granted its not as positive as this as some of the time villain will flop his ace, or he will suck you out, but I think you get where Im going with this one.
-STAV
Jul 16, 08 19:58:35
Andrew,
I fold to 3bets if the hands or stack sizes are right with realitve ease. Folding to 4 bets like the given hand should be almost 100% with stack sizes alone. Not to mention the hand you have is not the best to have vs his range. Basically, I think its impossible for you to profit after his initial 4bet in the hand...even if he shoves every single flop (which he won't), you still won't hit enough flops to continue or have your hand hold up on the small % of flops you do continue on.
The KKTT hand is standard with your implied odds and set mining potential.
8JJA, you don't have any room really for FE once he bets \$96. Even still its 50/50 vs AA** so you're not going anywhere.
Jul 16, 08 20:09:29
I think pushing there is def a leak and folding seems to weak so i like the call. if it was like KK88 er something no suits it would be diff but with the KK and TT working together there are some good flops. def an interesting spot though. I would love to hear what stinger has to say about it.
Jul 17, 08 00:38:18
KKTT is a tough spot as played, I probably cry and push but might be bad at 2/4 because a 4bet is probably AA 100%. Also, I love monkey 3betting in position and all, but you really have to pay attention to who you're 3betting. 2 of the 3 hands you posted gamefreak (or w/e) 4bets you. If he's playing pretty snug, like 20/10 or something, or passive (40/8ish) I like flatting both the KKTT and A972 to his raises. Against an aggressive opponent I 3bet KKTT all day and A972 some but not always. For 3betting in general, you really have to consider who the raiser is and not 3bet tight players much, especially with hands that perform poorly vs AAxx
Jul 17, 08 06:56:12
told you.....200/400 plo is a let's stick it in and hope to get lucky battle.
wtf cares right....it's only 40k or maybe 100k. what's that?
Jul 17, 08 11:13:45
Andrew,
I wanna start off saying w/ the A972ds hand I believe the leak in the hand is 3 betting it because the hand really isnt that connected and I believe alot of big pots won in PLO is hitting big flops where there isnt an ace as alot of ppl always believe AAxx is in your range, but A972 just never hits that great of a flop and you can really get check raised off alot of flops. But sinse you did take the line of 3 betting that def is a fold pre. Otherwise w/ the KKTT hand I sometimes agree w/ stinger that you might sometimes want to just jam and close your eyes depending on the player because even when your against AAxx your hand doesnt fair all that bad and you might find some players at 2-4PLO that felt or overplay 910J8 or other suited straight hands. Otherwise though the call pre isnt bad, but do you play on check folding if you dont hit? I think your losing alot of equity in spots the player just might be spazzing out.
Jul 17, 08 12:37:32
I know this goes against all convention in PLO 3-betting, but think about making a standard raise and standard 3-bet size like you would in NLHE.
This doesnt really work well for people that don't 3-bet often, but with the frequency you 3-bet... if i remember right from playing some 5/10 it is very high.. .you can get away with this. Will allow you turn that KKTT hand into a profitable spot when you get 4-bet and sweet jesus it will tilt alot of 2/4 players.
Obv balance range and everything, standard 3-bet all the same hands you do now.
I started doing this a bit when the 3/6 and 5/10 games on stars starting getting really aggro w/ 3-betting and found it definately has potential. I especially don't see an an issue with it when you are dealing with players that rarely fold to full size 3-bets like at the lower limits. Just gives you more wiggle room.
GL on the challenge I'll be keeping up.
Jul 17, 08 15:17:38
havent read the other comments so sorry if I copy them, but as far as the first hand goes, especially in 6max but this applies in HU as well, I personally wouldn't be 4betting any random run-down hands that include Aces because you are likely either going to be getting flatted by better rundowns or 5bet by AAxx hands, so it seems to me that you are always going to be getting to the flop in bad shape and being put in really marginal decisions for full stacks. good luck with the challenge.
Jul 18, 08 10:40:45
I like makings smaller 4 bets. After all you are in position which will allow you to play your hand much better than your opponent. A smaller raise to like 40 or something is really useful if you are getting 4 bet a lot. It obv allows you to peel flops more profitable and sets the pots up for you to play better. If you put a lot of your stack in preflop you give up posistional advandage as now there is one pot bet (or leveraged pot bet) left and your opponent gets the first choice to put it all in or not.
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Remember when my blog was good? You probably don't. I'm talking way back to August 2006. The glory days when the site with the easiest games still existed. I'm talking about a place where the beer flowed like wine. Where beautiful women instinctively flocked like the salmon of Capistrano. I'm talking about a little place called Party Poker. Anyway, in August 2006, I embarked on a great challenge. My goal was to make 85k in 31 days playing 10/20NLHE on Party Poker. In the end, I came up a bit short, but it was a fun challenge and I always had something to post about. Today, I'm going to start a new challenge. This challenge doesn't have a monetary goal. It's simply a challenge to put in a lot of hands. I believe that if I put in the hands and the hard work, success will follow.
I feel like my PLO game is close to being good. I have good instincts and a pretty good understanding of the game. I have leaks though. In fact, I have some pretty big leaks. I plan on fixing those leauges and moving up the ranks in the correct manner. I will talk about my bankroll, my swings, what leaks I'm working on pluggins, etc. I think it should be an interesting excercise for me to go through and an interesting one for you to read.
What's the goal? I'm going to play 50k hands in the next 60 days. That's a lot of hands for me. I'm going to spend more time thinking/studying the game. I really want to move up the ranks in PLO.
Wish me luck.
Hands: 0
Profit: 0
Days remaining: 60
Jul 15, 08 13:30:15
I look forward to reading about your challenge and learning from your experience. Good luck and keep up micro grinders informed!
Jul 15, 08 13:41:53
gl man. wish you guys were still in vegas cuz im going out there in a week and woulda been cool to meet CR people. maybe wsop 2010 ill finally get to meet other CR people.
Jul 15, 08 13:49:31
Recently I was talking to someone about how awesome that August 06 challenge was. GL man, woot!
Jul 15, 08 15:54:13
Love the Dumb and Dumber reference. Classic.
Good luck dude. Hopefully the challenge will keep you motivated to see this through. I know one thing that helps me is to do updates in increments, like say every 15k hands.
It's fun to look back at.
Jul 15, 08 16:16:57
this will never last... you'll be negative half way through and will give up... u suck man.. haha
Jul 15, 08 21:26:53
Thanks for the dumb and dumber referense...I always wanted to know how to spell "Capistrano".
Jul 29, 08 18:34:48
i love ur videos and i admire your demeanor intructing your videos , im wondering if you made a video at PLO would your deamear change due to............ect?
anyways .. i wish the best of luck to my buddy muddy
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