CARDRUNNERS

After the heartbreak in 93 and the Eagles coming up short in the conference championship games and subsequent Super Bowl, I finally can know how it feels. I could have included the 00/01 Sixers in there(personally my favorite Philly team/season of all time) but even then I didn't expect them to beat that Lakers team. Yes I did have some tears in my eyes and still do when hearing Harry Kalas call the last out. I had my own minicelebration by having a rum and cherry coke zero and a reeses.
Harry Kalas 9th inning call....


  I didn't think the starters behind Cole would have been good enough to keep the team in the games but again it shows how important a great bullpen is to winning a championship. It was great to see Pat Burrell come up with arguably the biggest hit of his career in potentially his last at bat as a Phillie. I've always been one of his bigger supporters compared to most others in Philly.
     I plan on going to the Parade tommorow, hopefully at least one of my other friends will go also. I tried getting those Citizens Bank Park tickets but for some reason it is not going through. I know its going to be crazy down there and would have loved to have been there on Broad St. last night. Also am going to have to grab some clothes now, I'm thinking a Cole Hamels jersey too. It's ashame that bat I won from WYSP for divisional series isnt a world series bat. grrr.
     Watch Wheeler go crazy....
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Harry Kalas singing high hopes....
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     After 2 more blown saves, it appears most Phillies fans want Madson to replace Lidge as the closer. But is Lidge really doing THAT bad to warrant it or has he just been unlucky this year. Surely, there was going to be some regressing to the mean from last year’s performance, but this year has been absurd. 

     Anyone either watching the games or following statistically can see the main problem has been the home runs. However, a lot of this problem seems simply he is regressing to the mean from last year. Lidge already has given up 5 more homers than all of last year. In fact, almost 19% of his fly balls have been homers. Just as this year is an anomaly from his career HR/FB of 10.8%, so was last year at 3.9%. His only other significant outlier season was 2006. Another problem that makes that HR/FB rate uneasy is he is giving up the most fly balls since his 2004 season, and especially compared to last year. As a career almost even GB/FB pitcher, last year this number took a large change to many more ground balls(1.43GB/FB) that took advantage of the top notch defense of Rollins, Utley, and Feliz as well as limited the possibility of homer runs. But this year he has not been taking advantage of that and has posted a high fly ball rate and down to a .84 GB/FB%. And it doesn’t help that many of these fly balls aren’t measly infield pop ups. Again, as far as infield flies go, this year(5.4%) has been simply regressing to the mean of last year(17.6%) to get closer to his career of 11.7%. So as far as homers go, it appears it is just simply regressing to the mean. He is not as bad as he is now nor is he close to as good as he was last year.

     By those paying even closer attention to watching the games live, they would say just doesn't have same command, pitches are slower, and more 1-0 counts. They may have slightly more something to this hypothesis. First let’s get to the simplest to prove, the speed of his pitches. Of his two primary pitches, his fastball is slightly slower that last year by an average of .8 MPH. But I don’t think that small of a difference would have that great of an impact. The troublesome thing though is that this will be his 5^th year in a row where his fastball has decreased in velocity, dropping 2.5 MPH since 2005. His slider also has decreased in velocity since then at 1.8 MPH.

     For those thinking he is throwing more first pitch balls, he is. Last year he threw first pitch strikes at 55.7% of the time, this year it is 51.6%. And his total pitches in the strike zone are only down slightly at 1.7%. This is a decent, although not life changing change. The weirdest stat that pops up out of the blue is that hitters are making contact 88.2% of pitches in the strike zone. This is a huge difference from last year’s 78.0% and his career of 74.8%. One would think maybe his pitches are not getting sufficient movement then but you would think hitters would be making more contact on pitches outside the strike zone too, but that is not the case. They are actually making contact on pitches outside the strike zone by almost 5%. Even though his control is slightly worse than last year, it shouldn't have made that much of a difference unless his movement is totally off or is tipping pitches.

     When looking at the movement there hasn’t been any changes for the worse at first sight. His horizontal movement has been virtually the same. However, he has been getting more vertical movement. Maybe the vertical movement is actually causing more of his pitches out of the strike zone?  He is not appearing to tip pitches as his release points are almost identical to last year as well.

     Maybe his knee is giving him some trouble with the control but overall, he is not as bad as it is appearing and a good portion of his bad start is just regressing to the mean of last year and some extra little bad luck. There is no reason why he shouldn’t rebound some. He won’t be as good as last year but can’t be this bad either. He is just somewhere in between.

A couple of weeks ago I had a Saturday that has become a rarity since college, and a Sunday that reminded me why.  I went out to the burbs to hang out with some college buddies that I haven't seen as much as I should.  WE started drinking at 12:05 pm and continued throughout the day.

This wasn't just a lazy Saturday, this was drinking with purpose.  We revived a drinking game my friends developed sophomore year of school, and has almost been lost to the responsibilities of the real world.  The game is "DCB" or "Drinking Cubs Baseball."  The name isn't clever but it's perfectly utilitarian, you DRINK while watching CUBS BASEBALL.  Furthermore, just like any momentous occassion in college, DCB is commemorated with a T-shirt.



(mustard stain not included)

The rules are on the back:


The shirt makes it seem pretty simple but it can get complicated (especially by the 6 inning).  For instance, a home run isn't just 4 drinks.  Its four drinks for the actual hit and each RBI. So a 3 run home run would be 16 drinks 4(1hit + 3rbi)=16

You'll notice the rules aren't very specific for the Cubs, so go out and play following your own favorite team.

-Matt (Twitter: @JEWELRYnTOOLERY   email: philandmatt@gmail.com)

PS I could tell you about a handful of other drinking games my friends and I developed in college, but I want to hear about your games.  If I know anything about poker players they think anything can be a competition and waged on; I'm sure you guys have some crazy games.

Also, here is a drinking game that I found on a blog that is a lot more particular to this Cubs season.

     I had another month in the red for July- primarily due to 200plo. Finished down just under 5k and another 5300 live. For me though the live is more bothersome. My first trip of the month was playing 2/5 and just ran like dogshit. Not saying I was playing my A game or anything but just was finding the top of peoples ranges on a consistent basis. As for my 2nd trip i played some 2/5 again and just was the same thing so I hung out with a friend a bit the next day before playing again in hopes of clearing my mind a bit and decided to go to 1/3. At 1/3 i was able to get back into how I normally play and was able to gain control of the table like how i would before. Hopefully the next time I go back down i will continue where I left off on the final couple days.

     As for the struggle in PLO, I decided to get Jeff Hwang's two books and have started on my first. I probably won't get by it as quick as I should as I also have to read/study for the LSATs again in late September. Much to my dissapointment I have regressed a bit in the logic games part. maybe I just need to get back into the swing of it.

     As for the baseball trading deadline deals-
Phillies/Indians:
I am happy with my team, Phillies, in what they did. Acquiring a top notch starter in Cliff Lee and a good reserve in Francisco for 3 marginal prospects and a decent one(Knapp) instead of ditching two top prospects and Happ for Halladay was a much better decision. I think Marson and Donald will primarily be backups in the bigs and Carrasco will be at best a 4/5th starter. And Knapp seems more of solid, back end of the bullpen type of pitcher. It is also beneficial that Lee costs lot less than Halladay salary wise, giving the Phitins more room to work with in the offseason.
Phills grade: A
Indians: D

Red Sox/Indians deal:
Victor Martinez is a nice nice upgrade over Jason Varitek. He's been about .8 wins above replacement more than Vartiek so far this season and should provide another half a win more at least for the rest of the season, which could make a huge difference by the end of the year in the tough AL east. Meanwhile the Indians did better in this deal than in the Cliff Lee deal seeing as how they won't be winning anytime soon and catchers generally break down faster than pitchers and other positional players. Masterson should prove to be a very good bullpen arm as he ages. He's still young and under Indians control for cheap for more years yet. He's already provided 1.3WARP so far this year. The Indians' other prize in the deal was Nick Hagadone. When I was looking for potential guys to add to my minor league in my keeper league few months ago, this was one of the guys I was considering. However, like Masterson, I don't think he'll project as a starter but as a good reliever. He strikes out tons of batters but has battled control problems so far. Bryan Price is better than assumed in this trade too. He might be 5-11 in his career but the former 45th overall pick in the 08 draft has been rather unlucky so far. He strikes out a good amount of guys and has ok control so far. He 6.54 ERA in high A ball this year is severaly bloated by his 51.7% left on base which is absurdly unlucky.
Red Sox: B
Indians: B+

White Sox/Padres:
If I were getting Peavy I'd be very concerned with how he will transition from the tremendous pitchers park in San Diego to the very homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. His ERA away from Petco is almost a full run higher for his career and his whip is .2 higher. In return, San Diego got much taller with Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter. Richard(6'5) seems like a capable 4/5th starter and still under control and cheap for the next few years. Poreda is the prize of the trade for the Padres. The tall(6'7), former 1st round lefty looks solid. He never has had a FIP above 3.17 in the minors and has shown that consistency in his brief time in the majors too. He throws pretty hard with a average fastball of 92.5MPH and throws lots of ground balls. He should be a solid starter for the Padres. Adam Russell is a HUGE righty(6'8 250) he throws a mid 90s fastball that has nice upside as a solid bullpen arm. Dexter Richard is another tall righty (6'6) that has dominated Rookie and A ball so far. His 10.91K/9 and 2.44BB/9 over 118 ip this year is very promising. At this rate he can be a solid starter down the road for the Padres.
White Sox: B-
Padres: A-

Blue Jays/Reds
The Blue Jays sold high on Rolen and parlayed it into some younger players and reducing their payroll, although Blue Jays will pay a portion of what he is owed yet. Although he's lost a step, he's still a good fielder-not what he used to be- but still good. He will not have the power he once did due to his shoulder, but his change in swing and improved contact should help keep his average and on-base percentage decent with a good amount of doubles.  In contrast, Edwin is atroscious with the leather. He's also regressed at the plate this year. Maybe the Jays can use him as a DH instead of poorly fielding third. He will make a little under $5 million next year but should contribute at least a win above replacement and still has a chance to rebound and improve. Josh Roenicke should contribute as a solid reliever. He's been very good in the minors and his small time in the majors aided by his mid-90s fastball and improving control. The last player, Zachary Strewart was a former 3rd round pick who has had very good success in minors so far. His 1.52 ERA in 124.2 IPs is a little over his head as he's been a little fortunate but he is still a solid prospect as a starter. He's not overpowering and his control can still be flakey at times but he can project as a #3 type starter. I think the Blue Jays got a pretty good return on selling Rolen high to a team that should have no business buying at the deadline.
Blue Jays: A-
Reds: D-

Mariners/Tigers:
Mariners tried selling high on one of those weird years where Washburn actually produces good numbers.  They got Mauricio Robles and Luke French in return. The problem with that is, it's not much and is probably similar to what they could have gotten for him in any other year, but at least they trimmed payroll. Robles is a small guy (160lbs) but can strike some people out. He hasn't not been really dominant in A ball with his FIP hovering around 3.5 as he still is having control problems and giving up a little too many homers as a normal good prospect would in A ball. I don't think Luke French will translate well into the bigs based on his sample size so far in the majors and his minor league track record. He has average control but doesn't throw hard or have much movement. Couple that with not throwing ground balls and it is not a good recipe. Although spacious Safeco should aid him more than other parks would have. The Tigers needed another decent starter to combat in the division and potentially in the playoffs and got one without giving up anything significant.
Tigers: B+
Mariners: C-

Dodgers/Orioles:
Sherrill should greatly improve their bullpen. Although they didn't get Halladay to counter what the Phillies did, they still did a good job in addressing a need come playoff time. He is also tough against lefties which will be good to combat the Phillies lefty-stacked lineup. In return, the Orioles got Steve Johnson and Joshua Bell. Johnson has been slow in developing (almost three years in A ball) and hasn't show that much improvement or anything that separates him from other run of the mill prospects. Bell, a thirdbasemen, has shown good improvement in his promotion to AA ball this year. He has shown more patience at the plate and is striking out less while at the same time, improving on his power with a .201 isolated slugging compared to .182 last year. Still, a semi-decent thirdbase prospect and a middle of the road pitching prospect is not much to give up for proven, solid reliever in Sherrill.
Dodgers: A
Orioles: C-

Cardinals/A's:
Holliday is not as good as he showed in Colorado, but he's also not as normal as it seemed in Oakland. He should find a nice middle ground in St. Louis. The Cards had to give up highly regarded prospect Brett Wallace along with Shane Peterson and Clayton Mortenson. The former 13th overall pick Wallace, a thirdbaseman, has not necessarily shown improvement with his promotion to AAA this year but has not fallen off the earth either. He doesn't have very good speed and his patience at the plate has dipped a bit this year along with his power. He won't be a top tier thirdbaseman but can still be a above average one. Peterson, a former 2nd rounder, has good speed in the outfield and has been improving on his K%-rate. He doesn't have much power, but if he gains some more patience at the plate he good be a decent top of the order guy or at least a solid defender. Mortensen, a former first rounder, has not shown too much in his years in the minors. He may be a 5th starter of long reliever type of pitcher.
Cardinals: B+
A's: B-