CARDRUNNERS
What's Your Edge
verneer's Poker Blog
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Here is how: I will be joining Lou Krieger on his radio show called Keep Flopping Aces on Rounder's Radio. If you manage to get on the air and ask a question that Lou puts on the air, I'll put your name into a pool. Even if you just join the chat room and say hi, your name will still get counted. Just make sure you identify yourself from CardRunners. I'll then randomly select a person from that pool for an hour of coaching.
To recap:
When: Thursday, February 11th, at 9:00 EST
Where: Rounder's Radio
What: Get on the air (or join us in the chat room) and ask a question (or simply stop by and say hi).
I have never done anything like this (live radio), so I'm hoping to make it worth your while if you listen. Good luck me.
Feb 6, 10 17:39:42
Lol, nice offer.Guess that open-shoving 7-2 off PF has better chances of winning (excl. fold equity) than actually receiving this free hour of coaching:)))))))))))))))))
Anyway I'll be listening this show
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First, I wanted to finish up my thoughts on trusting others online. When I started thinking about who I personally would trust, the first two people that came to mind for me were Taylor and Lee Jones. Their reputation is integral for both of them to continue doing their jobs, and money seems secondary to them. Those were easy though. What about a harder choice? I still think the general themes of caring about your reputation and not being broke are key. If I was making a deal with someone that really needed the money, I would be a bit nervous.
It's hard to tell just how much someone is strapped for cash though. For example - I read about TJ Cloutier pawning one of his WSOP bracelets. This is a man who is very famous and given all his wins, would seem to have money. So - you never know someone's financial situation if you don't know them well.
At this time, I have a piece of action from two players. I feel 100% confident about both of them but for very different reasons. They are both winning players but I think this shouldn't be the primary factor in whether you have a piece of someone.
1. They both have a very good work ethic and both have great tilt control. They consistently put in the hands and when they do, they play their A-game most of the time.
2. Neither wants to make a lot of money quickly. Both tend to play 1 limit of 1 game - they don't jump around at all.
3. Both are winners at the limit they play.
4. Both are my friends and we talk on a very regular basis about hands they've played.
5. Both are active in their communities (CR and 2+2).
Given all that, by the end of the year, both will definitely be in the green. It's just a matter of looking at it in the long term. This is like investing in a company like Coca Cola - you know what they make, you understand why they are profitable, and you expect to make money from it long term. This is how Warren Buffet operates.
On the other hand, investing in something that you don't seem to know a lot about, but it seems like a sure way to make a lot of money, is usually a bad idea from my experience. I've definitely done that before, but usually have been blinded by my own desire to make a quick buck. Staking randoms or semi-randoms definitely has that appeal, but from my experience, will be a losing proposition. I've yet to hear a good reason for why someone would need to be staked in the first place when it comes to cash games. In both of the situations I've listed above, I have a piece of the player so they could move up in stakes quicker - it's not an all out stake.
So ... why would a winning player be broke? This always seems suspicious to me and should be a major red flag to anyone.
Feb 3, 10 09:59:15
Totally agree. You can pretty much not trust anyone except for those who have a lot to lose by tarnishing their reputation. Or, if its beneficial for both parties (enabling one player to move up quicker while also making the staker some cash). It is too sticky to stake a family member or a close friend--certainly from my experience.
Feb 3, 10 10:27:51
Anyone associated with CR as well as Lee were the first people that came to my mind when reading your last blog.
Feb 3, 10 11:36:46
It definately should be a red flag when a broke poker player needs a stake. I myself an am unemployed broke mofo who has been living off of meager poker winnings. Recently I was staked because I needed to pay medical bills with the last of my poker money. But I take my reputation very very very seriously and would feel horrible if I ended up losing their money. Since the stake I play one game and stick to it though. Staking a random broke player I do though feel is a bad situation, I'm just an exception I hope.
Feb 3, 10 12:32:01
i don't think the warren buffet analogy holds - staking a poker player does not provide the kind of predictable earnings and that he loves
if they are such good poker players why do they need a stake?
yeah the TJ thing is a bit sad. Last year i was playing cash at the rio and overheard him at the table behind me trying to sell off his action in some WSOP event with no takers
Feb 4, 10 22:58:23
why do they need you to stake them then?
Any winning player, who also has rakeback, should have their own bankroll. The fact that they don't is a red flag. And that red flag should completely nullify the positive reasons you posted.
Am I wrong?
If they're not in a hurry, why are you staking them?
Feb 5, 10 14:09:33
that's the obvious point why staking people in cash games is bizarre, whereas taking a piece of them makes perfect sense (the amount of extra money you have to risk by moving up 1 limit being double the one before is pretty ridiculous from a business standpoint). Having said that... if Isilidur was a friend of ures and seemed trustworthy, and you had the cash etc... would you stake him if he agreed to only play 10-20 or lower HU NLH? He could easily not be rolled for these games, but definitely be a winner there.
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Quick - name five poker players off the top of your head that you would completely trust not to scam you. Got it? Who are they?
A situation came up on 2+2 where it was outed that a fairly know poster got accused of scamming around $3K from another fairly known poster. Basically one poster staked a few people in 2008 and then one of them stopped answering PMs and AIM messages. He was definitely reading them since he kept on signing in on 2+2. The MSNL player who staked the other SSNL player found out that the stakee "donked off the money." Regardless of how it happened, tons of staking rules were broken and the stakee basically laughed off the whole situation. He then changed his SN on 2+2 as well as on AIM.
Well - just recently the MSNL player found out that the SSNL stakee has a new 2+2 account, but continues to play under the same SN on FTP and Stars. He posted his grievance on the stakee's PTR page and things moved pretty quickly from there. This is around a year and a half after the original deal went though. Well - there was a general sense of surprise about all of this and obviously a lot of people wanted to know more details. The stakee, under the new SN, definitely has gotten a lot of respect from his peers both for his advice and his play. Hence the uproar. As of now, the two are in contact again and trying to resolve things.
So this brings me up to my original question. Who are five poker players that you would trust without thinking too much. Why would you trust them? What is a common trait(s) that they share? Katy and I were discussing this over lunch and she said "I would definitely trust Barry Greenstein. But maybe not Sammy Farha." :)
I'll write a little more about this later but want to hear from you guys first.
Jan 31, 10 20:38:19
trust no one. Poker is an individual sport. Staking is a losing proposition most of the time. If people don't have enough money to play, it's because they're not winning players and make bad life decisions, period. trust yourself.
If a friend needs a loan, fine. loan them the money. Don't expect to get it back though. if you do, it's a surprise.
Jan 31, 10 20:44:37
Totals - I'm not just talking about staking - I'm talking about trusting people in general. Would you really not trust any poker player on their word?
Jan 31, 10 21:04:33
I feel like the more money a poker player has, the more trust worthy he is. There are obviously some players who this doesn't apply to, but I think in general, this could be the underlying trait.
barry G,Doyle,Phil Ivey,Kaybash on FT,Chantech on FT are the first 5 that came to mind for me. Basically, they all seem like honest people who still believe that having a good reputation is important. I know I'm a believer of that as well. It's tougher to find now a days sadly.
Jan 31, 10 21:10:17
I wouldnt trust anyone I havent interacted with live or online for a while. I mean, why would you? That said, I did come up with 5 people pretty quick, a couple of them who ive met in person and 3 more that I only know online, it usually all started with trading sweats sessions, and chatting on aim, and you can really tell what people are like when you talk to them....now we can do \$"x" transfers without giving it much thought.
But if you are talking about live players, i guess all you can base your decision on is word of mouth, ie ivey is known to always be good for his prob bets and such.
Jan 31, 10 21:18:39
Bazuko - def not looking just for live players. My first thoughts were online players because that's who I know best.
Jan 31, 10 21:30:47
is this an update on your problem with Vintage? Is that why he isn't a member anymore?
Jan 31, 10 23:52:05
well i was able to think of 5 pretty quick and i could think of many more but 100% of them are people i have met and played live poker with :)
Feb 1, 10 00:49:37
AKAssman (brother)
ArmyofAlbusD (friend)
SHROMI (former stakee)
thats all
Feb 1, 10 01:40:03
Probably the people who have trusted me and those I consider to have a strong moral compass. Definetly helps if they fear you.
Feb 1, 10 02:17:32
tell katy she is a fish, farha would be easy to trust with money since any amt you have is pennies to him!
Feb 1, 10 03:18:29
Maybe I've been lucky but I've never had a problem getting scammed. I've shipped people \$\$ using site transfers before (e.g. to buy me into a local live event so I didn't have to make a special trip just to enter, or to transfer from one site to another) but it's never been more than a few hundred. Of course, I'd have to think twice before shipping a larger amount that meant something to me.
Top 5 who, say, I'd send \$1k to without too much thought:
Pokersmith2 (known him personally for years)
TheXC (never met him, but seems solid :)
Junior501 (brother)
Piexes (wife, but she never plays so I'd be suspicious!)
PhilIvey (Just to be able to tell my grandchildred of the time Phil Ivey needed me to stake him...)
Feb 1, 10 04:28:21
"PhilIvey (Just to be able to tell my grandchildred of the time Phil Ivey needed me to stake him...)"
Or "Phil Ivey stole money from me."
Feb 1, 10 05:52:33
Luke - I think when it comes to poker, \$\$ and deals, I would def classify Katy as a fish, but I'll still pass that comment on to her.
Feb 1, 10 10:20:12
Anyone in Joshuadzl's original poker group as well as my good friend Fender...
Sweating the pokahs with them for years...
Feb 1, 10 10:38:04
I think all of the CR instructors I lived with or been coached under are very upstanding businessmen, and would stake / do a staking deal with any of them
Feb 1, 10 12:29:07
I guess if you want just online players,
tiltasaurusrex
chantech
tcorbin/iwinflips
tommyhwakers
kaybash
porktom
All have shipped me money back and forth multiple times and all seem like cool/trustworthy guys.
Feb 1, 10 12:51:06
I would trust you, because you truly seem to care for the little guy more than any instructor on any site. Aisflat439 and Dahlig are class act guys in my SNG group. As well as the gang from a cash game group that I belong to.
Feb 1, 10 18:22:25
Verneer:
Just wondering if you are going to discuss your thoughts on your previous blog-Do you like a Cbet here? I am quite curious :)
Feb 1, 10 19:21:52
TopSpot - both spots actually come in a video and you can see what I did yourself :)
Feb 1, 10 23:08:45
trust is built over time, and over getting to know people and investing time in each other.
So, no, I wouldn't trust anyone.
everyone, no matter how good their character, is capable of deception and immoral acts. That's why religion is so popular, and it why children learn to manipulate their parents at the age of 2
Feb 2, 10 11:27:55
I have a pretty decently long list that includes a ton of CR employees and friends. In fact, I've entrusted a number of people with \$ already (and vice versa).
There is always an inherent risk, but if I consider somebody a true friend I should be able to trust them with my \$. Otherwise they are not much of a friend at all imo.
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Jan 30, 10 06:09:57
AQo: Calling range for BTN might include Kings, but not KA, KK, and I would guess not KQ either; he is likely to 3bet each of those. TT, 44 are obv in his range, although he might 3bet TT too. He will know lots of K-hands are in my UTG range. So I am happy to cbet if it was only me and him. However, BB complicates matters - only 8 hands, so we don't know much. I would put his calling range a bit tighter than the BTN's (seems tighter, he is OOP), and would guess he doesn't call with worse than KQ, and 3bets KA/KK, so I don't think he has a K. He might have a med/big pair though. That leans to cbet, but a flop with 2 high cards means many other hands the BTN calls with PF, gives him draws: QJ, JA, Q9, J9. On balance I check and bet ATC on the turn if BB ch to me.
JT: I think that flop is dry enough to have a stab at. If you get called and don't improve, you're done. If you get raised, ditto. Find out now, before you get sucked into a draw on the turn and a bigger pot.
Jan 30, 10 06:12:36
1st hand- i would c-bet.
amount- \$1.50
reason- its a board where if u are raised after betting its an easy fold but if u get called an ace or jack could put you ahead. the BB is obv more likely to have something here but being so tight he will prob even fold a ten here. also the button calling does not necessarily mean ur losing.he could call with qj, j9, q9.
therefore its a great spot to c-bet. i would say great chance of getting at least 1 fold. if bb calls i would prob bet most turns while if button calls im not so sure as he may not give up on draws.
Jan 30, 10 08:47:03
c bet both, you take it down enough and you need to have air in your c betting range on all kinds of boards so that you re balanced and can get paid next time u flop KT4 with 44 TT KT etc.
pretty standard imo
Jan 30, 10 10:51:57
hand 1 - c bet
reasons:
-decent equity against there c bet calling ranges
-tough to get to showdown with the best hand if you check
-you will get a lot of folds against better hands in there preflop calling range e.g. small pairs
-protection against 2 players random holdings making pairs on future streets
hand 2 - Not sure think probably very close to neutral either way assuming you're willing to barell certain turns
Jan 30, 10 10:52:39
hand 1 - c bet
reasons:
-decent equity against there c bet calling ranges
-tough to get to showdown with the best hand if you check
-you will get a lot of folds against better hands in there preflop calling range e.g. small pairs
-protection against 2 players random holdings making pairs on future streets
hand 2 - Not sure think probably very close to neutral either way assuming you're willing to barell certain turns
Jan 30, 10 11:04:08
Also Caporegime,
If balance is your concern there are a significant number of "air" hands that fair far better in terms of equity thus making them better c bet candidates e.g. Kx, Ax, 56s, 68s, jdtd etc.
Jan 30, 10 16:14:58
Usually I would cbet both but here I only cbet the 2nd too lazy to explain but there some explication by others that I agree with.
Jan 30, 10 16:15:22
Usually I would cbet both but here I only cbet the 2nd too lazy to explain but there some explication by others that I agree with.
Jan 30, 10 16:15:43
Usually I would cbet both but here I only cbet the 2nd too lazy to explain but there some explication by others that I agree with.
Jan 30, 10 19:04:41
I think had 1 is a c-bet and it's not close.
-your against two tight players who are not going to float you/play back at you light
-a cbet here folds out hands like 99/88 all day
-your hand still has equity vs even a strong calling range
-you get value/protect your hand when it's best(vs QJ especially.)
-you don't mind folding if raised
Hand 2, I think is very close and can go either way.
Reasons to cbet:
-there are a lot of cards you can fire 2nd or 3rd barrels on,
-you do have bdsd/bdfd
Reasons not to cbet:
-Your cbet is not folding out hands like 99/88 on this flop
-This flop hits oppoenent's flatting range pretty hard
-Your club is only a ten, which makes it tough to get value if you do go runner runner club if you go bet/bet/bet. However, if you go check/bet/bet, or check flop call turn bet riv, you may get value.
I think I'm leaning slightly more towards a check more so becuase your club is so low, and this flop smacks their ranges.
Jan 31, 10 09:51:14
AQ, is a cbet in my opinion because is a K high flop and people tend to give you some respect: if called you have a gutshot and an overcard so you can reevaluate on the turn.
JT I tend to not cbet because the board is much more connected and the other players have showed a will to play calling your iso bet: this means that they have probably played with more speculative hands like pp or sc so they could have hit this kind of board.
Jan 31, 10 09:51:36
AQ, is a cbet in my opinion because is a K high flop and people tend to give you some respect: if called you have a gutshot and an overcard so you can reevaluate on the turn.
JT I tend to not cbet because the board is much more connected and the other players have showed a will to play calling your iso bet: this means that they have probably played with more speculative hands like pp or sc so they could have hit this kind of board.
Jan 31, 10 13:37:51
i probably cbet #1 almost always
cbet #2 50/50, would be more comfortable with q84cc tho
Jan 31, 10 17:13:58
Hand 1:
I would Cbet to start weighting hand ranges. If you check you are giving your opponents the chance to put you to a decision. If Button calls he could have a straight draws or 10x hands that may fold to a second barrel. Button could have a "K" in his range but lets not play guessing games. If the BB calls the Cbet i am done with the hand unless we hit the gin (J). The BB range here could be a lot of pocket pairs, so i still think a Cbet is still good.
Hand 2:
Yes, Cbet. I think UTG is limp calling with small PP, since you stated you have been aggro against him IP. The blind caller could have a lot of BW cards but lets put the decision to him-he has a tough decision to make if you bet because he also has a player left to act behind him. So if he calls you can be sure he as a good hand or lots of equity in the pot.
Further, you also have some backdoor equity with flush and straight-yes very small and they might not be good. Also, you still have position in the hand if called.
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I was trying to figure out how the new changes to the Stars VPP system will effect the potential rakeback people get at the different levels. There is a whole site devoted to answering that very question: FPPPro.com.
On of the articles on this site is called "SuperNova Elite Pro Tips" - basically it's advice from people who have achieved Elite Supernova and how to do it.
One of the SNE's, DannyOhBoy, talks about his average day:
"Typical work day:
Wake up at 5:30, arrive at work at 6:30, sleep (if very tired) during lunch from 12-1, arrive home at 3:15, feed baby, eat dinner, assist with kids homework, hang with family until 5:30, play poker til 8:00 or so, hang with family until 10:00, play until 1 or 2 am, then sleep until 5:30. On weekends, I try to play from 6 or 7 am until noon, then again from 6 or 7 am until midnight."
If you do the math, you realize that he gets 3 hours of sleep per night. This begs the obvious follow-up question:
"Did you always sleep only 3 hours per night your entire life or did you have to acquire this habit?"
To which DannyOhBoy replied:
"To answer some questions, I developed a less sleep habit just this year in going for Elite. The strategy I used was to gradually cut back on my sleep. For example, I would go from 8 hours one week, to 7.5 hours the next week, and on and on until reaching about 3 hours per night on average. Now, my body has learned to expect only this amount and I can function pretty normally during the day."
Now I know that it is possible for us to operate on less sleep than we are used to. The military excels at getting people to function on the bare minimum sleep and food during training, but there is a reason why most of us get more than 3 hours of sleep on a regular basis - I just can't imagine that doing this for a full year would have no impact on your health - both physical and mental.
So even if I somehow could get through a year of getting one hour of sleep, I cannot image doing this for a few years. Thus, this whole approach, while impressive, is unsustainable, and probably not meant to be replicated in this fashion. Nonetheless - mad props for DannyOhBoy for his drive and ability to balance this along with a full time job and a family.
That said, the more I read about what people have to do in order to get SuperNova Elite, the less I see myself ever trying to do it.
88 Hand From Last Blog:
Here is what I ended up doing with the 88 and my thoughts about it ex post facto (which is what a lot of you said):
Jan 29, 10 00:49:52
what a retard, he could just learn not to be a rakeback grinder and play 2-3hrs a day while making 100-200\$ hr which is really easy at 200-400nl 4-10 tabling. then he'd be able to rly take good care of his kids instead of being a zombie which he most definately will be. just for some retarded rakeback
Jan 29, 10 02:10:46
You need to read verneers old blog post, about the different types of approaches to the game....for all you know he IS making \$100 hour.
Jan 29, 10 06:07:15
Yeah - as Basuko said - any person who finds a way to make \$140K+ per year of poker related income is not retarded. This guy admits that he's not that great at poker, yet makes six figures by doing something he's good at.
The stability of the VPP bonuses >>>> the variance and swings of 200/400NL for him, DUCY?
Jan 29, 10 11:42:50
o so a guy makin 100+k a year is a retard, really? Well i wouldnt mine bein a retard either. He admits he is not so good at pokert so this is theway he maximizes his profit. Pretty intellgent imo. Hes a slight loser at 100nl so 400nl would obviously not be good descion for him. I have a lot of respect for him and he has inspired me to think i can also get sne at 100nl. props to danny!
Jan 29, 10 12:14:51
100K is nice bonus in a year to your salary, but don't forget that by sleeping 3h a day he can cause some serious damage to his health, mental breakdown isn't fun thing.
and reducing sleeping time by 30min in just a week is a bit extreme imo
i agree that it's more interesting/exciting to learn how to beat games and not be a rakeback robot grinder, but everyone's free to choose what is best for them.
Jan 29, 10 14:42:36
When you add it up, he's only playing 5-8 hours a day, which is no more soul crushing than any other meaningless occupation that has you in front of a computer the majority of the time.
Jan 29, 10 16:57:03
I have watched all your vids Verneer so I wasn't surprised to see you played the 88 hand just as I would have done.
DannyOHBoy is gambling with his health big time.
3h sleep/day over a longer period is not good.
Im sure his lack of sleep affects his job, family and poker in a negative way.
He should try the rush tables ;-)
btw Verneer, whats up with the \$600 BR?
Dont tell me your wife makes you withdraw too?
looking forward to your next video
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Jan 26, 10 21:05:52
His range on turn includes a ton of flush draws, i have seen fish donk small and call riase with draws a ton. He can also be doing it with 9x and comeplete air cuase thats what fish do. The 5spades is a relaitve blank and we really only behind 9x. I would riase up turn, as we still get vlaue from all his fds. And we can check behind some rivers as hes unlikely to lead 9x agian on river.
Jan 26, 10 21:47:23
Just looking at the fishes betting here, I think he is weak and trying to keep the pot small, I find that very often when a fish leadsd small and gets raise, then leads the turn again small, they fold to the second raise a lot. I think from their point of view their thinking for the small turn bet is, "I bet small and he raised me, if I bet small again it will look strong cos it looks like i want to be raised again and that way i dont have to call a big bet with my poor hand" , however i think most fish will usually either A) try to check raise you with a strong hand B) check call a hand they like.
Not sure I articulated my point too well there but anyway here I think the best line is to raise turn to like 5ish and check back the river or fold to any bet on the river.
Jan 26, 10 21:51:25
BTW i expect him to call enough times with flush draws and 4x and 55,66,77 enough times on the turn, he will call with 9x too though and that so we might be value owning ourselves a nit but +EV i think
Jan 26, 10 22:23:43
raise to ~2/3 pot.
bomb any river paint cards that don't complete the flush. checkback otherwise.
Jan 26, 10 22:54:53
I think his range includes flush draws, overs, maybe A with straight draw kicker? I think a raise would be most profitable. I think he doesn't have it here more than he does. So getting value out of his nothing is more profitable then leaving value on the table IMO. raise size \$3.75 - \$4.25.
Jan 26, 10 23:23:21
raise/fold turn, check most rivers
unless you have read he calls all pairs, then raise bet river, otherwise obv gotta value bet turn vs draws and random non 9 pairs he leads
Jan 26, 10 23:23:32
raise/fold turn, check most rivers
unless you have read he calls all pairs, then raise bet river, otherwise obv gotta value bet turn vs draws and random non 9 pairs he leads
Jan 26, 10 23:23:42
raise/fold turn, check most rivers
unless you have read he calls all pairs, then raise bet river, otherwise obv gotta value bet turn vs draws and random non 9 pairs he leads
Jan 27, 10 00:18:25
his bets are getting smaller & smaller relative to the pot street by street, which means he is feeling less and less confident about his hand (he is not confident he can win at showdown or is not confident of making any money if he bets big with AA or top set). I think a turn cr would push him out of the pot if he has a weak hand and would be overvaluing your own hand if he has a monster, so I would just call the turn.
Jan 27, 10 03:15:54
I think raising turn is good. AS LONG AS YOU KNOW HOW TO DEAL WITH A RERAISE. If you can not comfortably call a shove, or fold to a shove with your hand, then I would say calling and evaluating river is the better play.
If we decide to raise, I think 5 dollars is decent. If you look at the pot size and effective stacks, it's about 7 dollars in the pot and 17 behind, and if you treated his weak lead as a check, your normal bet in this spot would be around 5 dollars. I think if he shoves over you, it becomes very close(your read could change this assumtion). A3 got there, 45 got there and I'm not sure if you're completely ruling out a 9 from his range or not. I think I would call a shove though, getting over 2-1 and the very likely possibility he's shoving a hand like 34 or A5.
If called on the turn, I do think you can shove some rivers for value. I think non A/3/6 rivers would be ok, unless you think he'd check clubs on the river as well, but he seems fishy and would probably just shove if he made clubs.
So I would probably raise/call turn to 5 dollars. And value shove non A/3/6 (sometimes clubs) rivers.
Jan 27, 10 03:16:15
I think raising turn is good. AS LONG AS YOU KNOW HOW TO DEAL WITH A RERAISE. If you can not comfortably call a shove, or fold to a shove with your hand, then I would say calling and evaluating river is the better play.
If we decide to raise, I think 5 dollars is decent. If you look at the pot size and effective stacks, it's about 7 dollars in the pot and 17 behind, and if you treated his weak lead as a check, your normal bet in this spot would be around 5 dollars. I think if he shoves over you, it becomes very close(your read could change this assumtion). A3 got there, 45 got there and I'm not sure if you're completely ruling out a 9 from his range or not. I think I would call a shove though, getting over 2-1 and the very likely possibility he's shoving a hand like 34 or A5.
If called on the turn, I do think you can shove some rivers for value. I think non A/3/6 rivers would be ok, unless you think he'd check clubs on the river as well, but he seems fishy and would probably just shove if he made clubs.
So I would probably raise/call turn to 5 dollars. And value shove non A/3/6 (sometimes clubs) rivers.
Jan 27, 10 08:23:09
I would raise here almost allways as his range are very few 9x (never ever better), alot of draws and weaker pairs than ours. Decide river... btw he NEVER 3bets the turn...
Jan 27, 10 12:32:23
Call try get show down hope no spde comes he easily could have x9 and 30bb in pot so not bad rake considern hands. Just my thoughts , But guess a big raise might work as well but dont no if is worth it aganst his draws most fish cant lay down flush draws
Jan 27, 10 14:33:57
You showed aggression to him and he continue to make these block betting: I guess he's drawing on the flop and the 5 is not a wonderful card for you. Raise for sure the turn (a little more than half pot) but be ready to muck if he come over the top.
Jan 27, 10 14:34:43
You showed aggression to him and he continue to make these block betting: I guess he's drawing on the flop and the 5 is not a wonderful card for you. Raise for sure the turn (a little more than half pot) but be ready to muck if he come over the top.
Jan 27, 10 14:35:05
You showed aggression to him and he continue to make these block betting: I guess he's drawing on the flop and the 5 is not a wonderful card for you. Raise for sure the turn (a little more than half pot) but be ready to muck if he come over the top.
Jan 27, 10 14:35:26
You showed aggression to him and he continue to make these block betting: I guess he's drawing on the flop and the 5 is not a wonderful card for you. Raise for sure the turn (a little more than half pot) but be ready to muck if he come over the top.
Jan 27, 10 15:23:50
Villain never has TP. TP is le nuts for him and he would prob CR-call a shove with any 9...
I think he either wants free cards for his draws or he wants a cheap showdown with his A2, A4 crap.
If you just call turn you are in an awful spot on the river if he decides to bet big with a missed draw.
Name your own price for a river showdown by making a turn cbet. It doesnt need to be so big. He is too bad to exploit that obv bet sizing tell. 2.75 will be enough.
Check behind river unimproved.
Jan 27, 10 15:40:22
Assuming he won't ever 3b bluff this turn I see no other option than to raise for value.
Jan 27, 10 19:04:50
soooo typical spot at micros. great u point it out. I like ur flop raise and reasoning behind it. Raise turn to something he can comfortably call w tons of draws and smaller pairs in his range - some like 4.75. fold to 3b. Check river behind
Jan 27, 10 21:28:42
Villiian's range: 46, 47, 67, 45, A4, A9, 79, 910, J9, Q9, Q10 clubs, A3 clubs, 67 clubs, K10 clubs, AJ clubs
As you can tell the villain has a wide range here. I am having a hard time seeing his aggression stat, so my play would be....
Turn: Raise to \$5.50
Reasons:
1. looks like he wants to get to show down cheap or draw (cheap). So i believe you are looking at the weaker side of his range.
2. Most fish just XC down here with weak 9x hands
3. Although play looks like he is holding the weaker side of his range, every once in a while you will see them show up with 9x or a badly misplayed pocket pair like 1010--yes I know weird, but i have seen it. So if villian calls on turn we can weight his range more towards the flush draws or 9x hands. Our raise at this point will fold out all 4x hands in his range. Yes if we raise we are folding out a lot of his weaker hands and getting called by some of the hands that have us beat. But we also don't let him SET THE PRICE for a draw. And making are river play much easier.
Raised by Villain on turn: I'm not happy...most likely holding is two pair or A9 and sometimes the flush draw
Jan 28, 10 04:07:44
Most of the time this weak lead is "I have a medium but non-nut hand, and I don't want to face a big bet". It's wierd but people will more readily call a bet that they aren't prepared to make themselves. I'd 2/3 pot the turn. If he bet big on the river (>1/2 pot) I'd fold. If he checked river or bet small then unless you can push him off 9x I'd just check-back/call the river.<BR><BR>Of course, sometimes you can value-own yourself:
nanteau (\$11.38)
lionheartpt (\$9.98)
astr8play (\$15.99)
Tall_Mat (\$10.25)
Italia_no19 (\$31.53)
Zak_Lee (\$10.85)
nanteau posts (SB) \$0.05
lionheartpt posts (BB) \$0.10
Dealt to Tall_Mat Jc Jh
fold,
Tall_Mat raises to \$0.30
Italia_no19 calls \$0.30
fold,
nanteau calls \$0.25
fold,
FLOP (\$1) 3d 2d 6d
nanteau bets \$0.10
Tall_Mat raises to \$1.10
Italia_no19 folds
nanteau calls \$1
TURN (\$3.20) 3d 2d 6d Qc
nanteau bets \$0.10
Tall_Mat raises to \$2.50
nanteau calls \$2.40
RIVER (\$8.20) 3d 2d 6d Qc Kd
nanteau checks
Tall_Mat checks
Tall_Mat shows Jc Jh
(Pre 81%, Flop 10.7%, Turn 4.5%)
nanteau shows 6c 6h
(Pre 19%, Flop 89.3%, Turn 95.5%)
nanteau wins \$7.66
Jan 28, 10 18:33:18
i think the fish can have one of two hands, he either has a flush draw or a weak 9 like J9 - on im 100% raising his turn donk to get value from his draws, then if the river blanks i think he will just check it and we can check behind, i feel value betting the river is a bit thin and we have gotten 2 streets from his draws so he cant call a river bet unless were beat.
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Yesterday I was talking with one of the biggest 200NL players online (let's call him Player A) and he mentioned that Cardrunners has been fundamental in him going from beginner to as he said "descent player" (which is a humble understatement). This got me thinking about how some people are able to watch a few videos and then jump into games and start winning, whereas others have watched hundreds of videos and are at best break-even players (Let's call this type Player B).
So what are some of the differences between Player A and Player B? I wonder if there is any difference in processing information from videos? Or is it a matter of then applying it correctly?
For example, let's say that iRock talks about a hand where he 3-bet a villain and then c-bet a flop, and then took it down. How different would Player A's account of what happened be from Player B's account? This would be a difference in how the two receive information.
Secondly, let's assume that both players got the same general gist of the example. When they actually start to play, would Player B be more likely to misapply what he got out of the video? What would be the reasons for this?
Finally, there is the ever-present tilt factor and what we seems to come up most often in these type of discussions. Maybe both players receive the same info, maybe both players know how to use it in a spot, but for some reason, player B just doesn't whereas player A does. There is a difference in personal discipline.
But I still think that the differences start in as early as processing the content of a video and then the differences just compound at each subsequent stage.
Jan 24, 10 11:06:09
I think the big difference is the tilt factor and emotional control, however if u are able to process the information faster,then ur more liekly to win and tilt less. so it works both ways. IMO I think it comes down to mental stability.
Jan 24, 10 23:34:53
Emotions stop you from acsessing your knowledge,so it doesnt matter how much you know if you cant control them! FACT!<BR>I am a good winner at 1-2 and not very often but lets say about once every 100k hands if ive broken even for 2 weeks i will make a call where my opponents hand was face up,it can be so obvious im losing,even against a nit,i'll usually have a least a set but im still esentially bluff catching.Self pity clouds my hand reading to the point of non existance and makes me call.I play day after day without tilt but every now and then it pops up and makes me feel sick.When this happen i re-read and re-watch as much as i can on the subject of variance.Anyone who tilts on a regular basis stands no chance in todays games because playing witout it is one of your biggest edges against players who have accessed all the same poker imformation as you have. GL
Jan 25, 10 02:49:06
player a tried a play a it worked the first few times and it was imprimted into his play. player tried the same but it didnt work. so he disregarded the play and its missing from his arsenal.
maybe its some luck
Jan 25, 10 02:49:18
player a tried a play a it worked the first few times and it was imprimted into his play. player tried the same but it didnt work. so he disregarded the play and its missing from his arsenal.
maybe its some luck
Jan 25, 10 03:47:40
> There is a difference in personal discipline.
Hmmmm. That's me - an archetypal player B!
Jan 25, 10 03:51:33
EVERYONE watches these vids...There are free now..u just have to play alittle on FTP and u can watch them all.
there is maybe 10% MAX that dont know what ur goin to do on the button.
The secret is out.
beatting 6 max or FR for a decent living is very very hard.
Sure you can grind maybe 100-400\$ avg a week. But the days are over of making 600\$ + (avg) a week. (Im not talking about the next 6 month avg., im talking the next 2 years).
Make 57\$k playing 50c/1 or 1/2\$ in the next 2 years and I think that your better then Ivey in NL.
I am just happy i took advantage of making \$\$ back in the day.
Peace
Jan 25, 10 04:45:25
basically has to do with understanding why you're doing something. If you can logically and consistently answer "why" something is being done then you will be able to succeed much easier then the person who knows that you can/should do certain things in spots but doesn't understand the fundamentals behind the play.
Jan 25, 10 04:45:35
basically has to do with understanding why you're doing something. If you can logically and consistently answer "why" something is being done then you will be able to succeed much easier then the person who knows that you can/should do certain things in spots but doesn't understand the fundamentals behind the play.
Jan 25, 10 05:25:43
Maybe, you can do a database comparison of these two player types? If you need losing or break even database look no further :)
Anyone can type Ernest Hemingway's "Old Man and The Sea" word for word, however most people could never write a best selling book. Basically what xlengthy said, in diffferent words:)
I think more than likely those that struggle learned small leaks that they repeat without realizing what they are. Repetition is the king of making skill into habit or bad habit into bad play. For me maybe the latter :(
Jan 25, 10 06:25:48
A lot of the difference between A and B has to do with mental stability and bankroll management.
Jan 25, 10 08:27:21
Player A works on the why rather than the how and knows what he is trying to acheive for each and every decision he makes. He will have good emotional control and understand that even small mistakes will prove costly if made over and over. He will constantly look to improve and be prepared to adjust to whatever games and opponents he is playing.
Player B frequntly watches videos and then hits the tables to try out some new lines, but he hasn't taken the time to understand them.
He thinks he is better than he actually is and probably thinks he is not winning because he is unlucky.
Jan 26, 10 19:52:01
Ben_coy - that can't be it though ... both players want to succeed badly and both work very hard.
MvVandalay - what do you mean by bankroll management? How does that play in?
Jan 26, 10 19:55:45
youcallmejoe - there is tons of luck involved, this is true. I always tend to underestimate just how much luck is involved with success ...
xlengthy - yeah - it's amazing how often players can't explain why they did something. I still find hands sometimes where I think to myself - wtf was that?
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I have been playing a lot of Rush the last few days and man ... it's been a roller-coaster. I'll go over those four days day by day, as each days represented a new stage for me.
Day 1: Doubt, Excitement, God-Mode
Thought the game was silly at first, but once people started posting crazy graphs which shot at a straight 45 degree angle, I decided to go for it. My run-good peaked with winning this 5 BI pot with 4.5% equity:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?5111500
After that, I mostly broke even, but finished the day up 10 BI's. I was ready for more.
Day 2: Can't win a hand, Tilt
I started out the day up around 2.5 BI's and then all Hell broke loose. Lost twice with top set of Kings. Lost two more big pots with KK - one of them was 4-bet vs. a guy who spiked a set of 9's and another was 3-bet vs. a guy who flopped top set of 8's. Both were for 100 BB stacks. I then proceeded to make some generally tilty plays which I'll illustrate below:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?5111526
Here it seemed like everyone was monkey 3-betting the button, so I 4-bet. Flop a bluff-catcher so I decide to c/c. On the turn I hit trip and check again. On the river I bet 1/5 pot to induce a bluff and snap it off. Whoops.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?5111535
Trying to push a player off a pair. He turn two pair ... whoops.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?5111542
I put him on TJ or 67. "Surely he wouldn't bet a weak ace on the turn! His range on the river was super-polrized" Nice full house sir.
I finished the day beyond steamed. Rush had gotten the better of me both at the tables and emotionally. I was sooooo tilted. My bankroll also dropped from it's high point of $535 to $401. I needed to do something differently - this was clear.
Day 3: Further in the hole, but playing well. I start turning things around ...
Started out in a horrendous hole again: Down 5 buy-ins.
I played pretty much tilt free though. The difference in taking a little time off and clearing my head was night and day. My losses came from spots like this:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?5111568
And here my flopped set is actually the 3rd best hand on the turn in a 3-bet pot:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?5111570
Of course there was some bad play. Villain is repping a very narrow range so I call. Meh:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?5111589
VithelTone, one of the guys on 2+2 who posted crazy 25NL graphs and stats, agreed to do a Rush Video with me (him playing, not me for obvious reason), and sweating him and discussing a few spots just made me feel much more confident about my game. The video should come out soon and is based at 25NL with lots of talking about how the game has already evolved.
I sit down for an evening session and win a 300BB pot on my 2nd hand:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?5111591
Then I own a villain who is "repping a set":
http://www.pokerhand.org/?5111593
At the end of the day, my red line loses stood at over 5 BI's. My general strategy of just waiting for hands was bleeding big time. I decided to make some modifications.
Day 4: Things are starting to click ...
Was completely unmotivated to play after being away from home the whole day, but decide to put in a short session. I tried a new strategy (which I won't go into at this point), and was generally much happier with my play. yeah, it's a small sample, but the trend is much better than any of the previous days as far as the red line is concerned. I also got paid off on my big hands from players who can't fold.
I was also happy to just call it a win for the day and reflect some more on what's going on with the games. There are definite reads you can make, and I think the essence of the game comes down to making those reads based on what is available (there is much more available than you think to make reads!), making notes (yes, it's possible), and being aware of how the game is evolving (reading forums, being in tune with flow,etc).
Nice hand me: http://www.pokerhand.org/?5111610
So ... those have been my incredibly swingy last few days. It was also the first time since the year started where I tilted - something I'm disappointed in, but something I have moved past since. Tomorrow I am going to put in a long few sessions playing with everything that I've absorbed and reflected on in the last few days and will see what happens.
Jan 23, 10 05:32:30
Love the honesty of this post. I'm still at about day 3 in terms of evolution. Day one was 3-bet 4-bet happy with red line shooting up but P&L line going down. Now tightened up so the red line is going down but P&L slowly rising. There must be a better halfway point!
Jan 23, 10 17:35:50
wow, you ran that $100 up pretty quick. I'm trying the same and only at \$180 after 16k hands.
Rush tilted me a little bit too.
Jan 23, 10 20:23:33
i'm currently getting into the same crazyness - but i think its definitely good to be having a seriously high redline / steal % - seems to be the way forward for me :)
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The original "Show Me The Money!" article.
The Russian translation.
There is tons more of my stuff on that page. Browsing it feels like I'm in Bizarro World. It's definitely been one of the more interesting e-mails I've gotten. I feel both flattered and a bit weird (no one asked and they didn't tell me anything until just now ...). Overall, it's kind of fun.
If you read my blog and are Russian, do you also visit some Russian poker sites? If so, which ones?
LOL?
Jan 20, 10 03:55:36
i'm Russian but i don't read russian poker sites because i simply can't stomach all the poker slang in Russian lol
there was a site like cardrunners.ru (i dont really remember) where people tried to translate CR vids into Russian and sell them. haven't seen any vids in Russian though
Jan 20, 10 04:53:29
Well, there are plenty of Russian pokersites, there is something like 2+2 community at www.cgm.ru and www.betflop.com, but they are far less solid, and www.pokeroff.ru and www.mirpokera.com are the sites with blogs, videos, articles etc.
Jan 20, 10 05:44:31
Hey Verneer... Great to see that you've found out about our work :)
I am one of the people that organize the whole thing. Check out the translation of your 2+2 thread here:
http://www.pokeroff.ru/forum/Podnimaemsya-po-mikrolimi-t6217.html
, we also got discussion there and trying to help novice players. Of cource we mention that "Verneer" there is a fake nickname just to make it more simple :)))
The project "Verneer" is one of the projects of "translations" community. Another project was 2+2 Anthology translation:
http://perevodi.pokeroff.ru/blog/note/764331
We really appreciate and respect your work and translate only "open source" articles. Hope you don't mind :) We are working on one of the biggest russian poker websites called
www.pokeroff.ru
, and lots of people are really thankful for your work. Well...nothing "lol" here, u r just doing a damn good job ;)
I was thinking to contact you and show all these works in couple of days and in the same time to ask if it is possible to translate the videos that you have on youtube ? Wanted to ask you for a good quality copy of these videos :)
Would be great if u could PM me here or by email (pavel.konst@gmail.com), if interested :)
Skype: pashen, Kolding Denmark
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